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Relictum Pro plans and achievements
Greetings, community. 👋🏻 In this post we will tell you about our plans and achievements. 📊 Roadmap is an important part of a project. Many scam projects talked about ambitious plans in their roadmap, attracting gullible investors. However, as a rule, such projects did not even live up to listing, disappearing with investor money. It is important that the plans are reached on time and are feasible. This is a hallmark of a reliable project. 🔹 In 2019, Relictum Pro completed all of its goals according to its roadmap. The concept of blockchain 5.0 and the documents formalizing the general (whitepaper) and the technical (yellowpaper) provisions of the concept were created. Pre-Sale was in June 2019. 🔹 In Q3 2019 an alpha version of the product, TEST-NET, was created, including a mobile application for Android / Windows, release of STAGE.TEST-NET (0.5) and DEV.TEST-NET (0.5). 🔹 Q4 2019 - Initiation of the STO / Token Sale procedure (December 9, 2019). Creation of a relic emission receiver. 🔹 Q1 2020 - We continued the Token Sale and released a stable version of the application. 🔹 Q2 2020 - Completion of the Token Sale / STO procedure (2020 June) 🔹 Q3 2020 - We’re planning development of sets of smart contracts on the platform designed for various areas of life: Insurance, Casino, Logistics, Medicine, etc. 🔹 Q4 2020 - Creating private networking; Network development, growth in the number of nodes. 🔹 Q1 - Q4 2021 - We’re planning to continue the network growth procedures. Popularization of Relictum Coin (RLC). Development of sets of smart contracts for various areas of government action. 📢 Read more about Relictum Pro project here: https://relictum.pro https://preview.redd.it/jq0yyw9a1z051.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f9eeb9b8b4abb527a0396d85f2ee3021a04c8f0
Holland Casino Amsterdam- any advice on logistics?
Will be passing through Amsterdam this weekend and I want to play at the central Holland Casino in Amsterdam. It opens at 7pm, and I was wondering if anyone had any experience registering and getting seated at a table. Is it first come, first served? Do you call ahead to get a seat? An app? Thought I would ask. I would hate to show up when it opens, only to find that all the tables are reserved and there's a 3 hour wait. Any other tips/tricks would be appreciated. Thanks for your help!
Albeit a week late, I want to share my 2021 portfolio for documentation purposes and for whoever is interested. I aimed to balance risk in this portfolio with some growth names and legacy plays. Down to brass tacks, I am putting my money in the highest quality companies (in my view) across a diverse set of industries I find attractive. Some of these names are overvalued in the short term. However, I have realized I am not in the business of beating Wall Street’s pricing, but would rather hold high-quality companies that I believe will grow faster that the market in the long term. In other words, I am totally fine paying a short-term premium for growth and quality. Below is a summary of the portfolio and big picture reasoning behind each investment. I'm definitely open to any feedback.
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF
Evolution Gaming Group
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS: ARKG) - Invests in companies advancing genomics. The companies held in ARKG may develop, produce or enable: CRISPR, Targeted Therapeutics, Bioinformatics, Molecular Diagnostics, Stem Cells, Agricultural Biology.
Innovative industry. Since 2003 the cost to sequence a human genome has dropped from nearly $3bn to less than $1,000. ARK believes that as costs continue to drop, genomic sequencing will become a standard of care in oncology. It will introduce more science into healthcare decision making, enable personalized medicine, and accelerate drug discovery. ARK estimates that genomic sequencing revenues will grow 43% at an annual rate, from $3.5bn last year to $21bn in 2024.
Cathie Wood. She’s a beast stock picker. Out of all the ETFs she runs, her closest competitor trailed by 60%. Her worst ETF still doubled investors' money. Her strategy is to make investments into companies that she considers incredibly transformational and she has seen success doing it.
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) - Cybersecurity technology company that provides endpoint security, threat intelligence, and cyber attack response services.
Best in class technology. Remember about a week ago a bunch of Russian hackers breached SolarWinds? The same hackers also tried to hack CrowdSrike at the same time but were unsuccessful. I’ve wandered on to a bunch of cybersecurity forums, and the general consensus is CrowdStrike has developed the best cybersecurity solution by miles. CRWD is the undisputed leader in cybersecurity.
“Pick-and-shovel” investment into the world’s increasing digitization. Even in the absence of COVID, cybersecurity remains a key component of the world’s increasing digitization as cyberthreats have been an ongoing issue from the onset of the internet. In the last decade we have seen a bunch of hacks where companies have exposed sensitive customer information. It seems companies are just starting to realize the importance of cybersecurity.
Disney (NYSE: DIS) - Worldwide entertainment company that you all are probably familiar with.
Reopening trade. In 2019, parks generated 45% of total operating income for DIS. Full reopening and attendance in parks will be slow, but certainly benefit DIS when it happens. The company has been executing on several other segments in the meantime (i.e. streaming). It has proved competitive, increasing the margin of safety if parks take longer to reopen.
Fast-growing streaming division. DIS has proved agile as it successfully launched a streaming service, Disney+, that has already gained 86mn+ subscribers which was the company’s original 5 year target. This is promising as it shows management can adapt to rapidly changing technology trends.
Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) - Designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.
Shift to clean energy; ENPH emerging as market leader. Going into 2021, sentiments towards solar have been at an all time high. This trend is expected to continue, especially after the Georgia run-off results. Solar firms are expected to benefit from extended tax incentives on both the consumer and producer ends.
Technological advantage. ENPH has developed the industry leading solution and is rapidly taking market share from its primary competitor, SolarEdge. Pricing reflects this, but it's expected to continue. Among key competitors, Enphase has been one of the lowest cost producers. Its low-cost structure is a major contributing factor to its improving margins.
Evolution Gaming Group (OTC: EVVTY) - Swedish company that develops, produces, markets and licenses integrated B2B live casino solutions for gaming operators.
Early mover advantage. Evolution’s lack of competition enables it to rapidly grow in new markets and create a loyal customer base, with high switching costs. The company has effectively grown EBITA margins from 41.6% in 1Q18 to 64.8% in 3Q20. Margin expansion is expected to continue.
Massive untapped markets. Europe is estimated to be around $2.5bn (EVVTY has 50% market share), Asian market is ~15x the size of Europe (150% YoY growth for EVVTY in Asia). North America’s market is ~$210mn, a 42% increase YoY, with NJ and PA the only states currently operating (NY looks promising). Management thinks the US will be the largest in the long-term.
Undetected from Wall Street. Evolution has almost no analyst coverage in the US and very minimal coverage in Europe, presenting opportunity for additional growth as institutional money managers recognize this opportunity and draw attention to the stock. Additionally, Evolution has a founder-led management team that is highly aligned with shareholders (mgmt owns over 30% of the stock).
Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) - Enables people to connect through devices. It’s products include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and Oculus.
Zuck. It’s not a question of who is the next Jobs/Bezos/Gates/Zuck, because Zuck is super young. He has a history of being able to execute: IG acquisition / transition from desktop to mobile / denying multiple acquisition opportunities in his twenties.
Undervalued. FB is the cheapest among the FAANG stocks, yet has some of the highest growth rates. This is mainly because of its continuous political scandals. With Trump out of office, I think FB has a chance to stay out of trouble and start to realize higher multiples. The antitrust lawsuit is not a threat imo, it is actually an opportunity. If the govt forces FB to break up, we would get shares in the spin-offs, which would be valued at a higher multiple than FB. For example, if Instagram spun off from FB and traded at the same multiple as SNAP, Instagram’s market cap would be larger than FB’s.
Digitization of Real Estate (i.e. “iBuying”). Technology in RE is moving from being informational to transactional. Redfin’s iBuying service is dubbed “RedfinNow.” The service basically buys homes from sellers looking for a quick and convenient sale (close deals within 10-30 days). This segment isn’t profitable yet as it is just getting started, but promising as the management adapts to technology trends.
Inter-US Migration and housing outlook. People are moving out of the cities because of COVID / trying to avoid taxes / etc. which increases demand for Redfin’s services. With interest rates extremely low (and no expectation for them to increase), homebuying demand should continue to grow.
RDFN most attractively valued compared to Z and OPEN, with the most upside potential given its market cap ~$7bn. Some are predicting RDFN might start offering rental services as well. RDFN has the best LT margin potential.
Teladoc Health (NYSE: TDOC) - Provides virtual healthcare services on a B2B basis to its clients and provides services to consumers directly and through channel partners.
Competitive positioning in industry ripe for disruption. Healthcare is a huge market yet to be significantly disrupted. COVID has accelerated this disruption. Providers who were once opposed to telemedicine now realize its benefits and several regulatory changes are promising for telemedicines growth potential. Medicare and other government-sponsored coverage is expected to include telemedicine benefits, increasing TDOC’s TAM.
Livongo acquisition. From the consumer POV, this will increase access to healthcare at a lower cost. Teladoc will have access to a larger amount of data it can interpret to refine its services and monetization strategies.
Sea Ltd (NYSE: SE) - Digital entertainment, electronic commerce, and digital financial services. The Company operates three business segments: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMonkey. The Company’s digital entertainment business, Garena, is a global game developer and publisher with a presence in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Latin America. Garena provides access to mobile and personal computer online games. Shopee provides users with a shopping environment that is supported by integrated payment, logistics, fulfillment, and other value-added services. SeaMonkey business is a digital financial services provider. SeaMonkey offers e-wallet services, payment processing, credit related digital financial offerings, and other financial products.
Diversified consumer internet company with market-leading position. Sea caters to Southeast Asia and Taiwan, providing its online gaming, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Shopee has overtaken competitors, it is widening its market share lead. ESports is a rapidly growing market (15.7% YoY to $1.1bn in 2020) and Sea is outpacing market growth.
Pay for quality. The best companies keep going up for years in a row, and I think Sea is in the early stages of being classified as such a company. It’s worth $100bn but has effectively proved its ability to identify opportunities and expand business lines.
Still early stages of developing its consumer banking business, so we get the security of a bigger, established company with upside for an additional, lucrative business line such as fintech.
Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN) - Waste services company that provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal and recycling services.
Recession resilient; re-opening trade. The waste management industry is recession resilient, it will always be around.
Non-hazardous waste collection. With a progressive government likely to push climate initiatives, recycling and non-hazardous waste collection are likely to benefit on the back end.
WCN has a large moat; there isn’t much of a competitive threat the way the industry operates. Management’s strategy is to generally only spend what FCF is available. This enables the company to make acquisitions while handling its debt load. Great for stable growth.
P.S. I have two other accounts - one with about 40 growth stocks and another with about 10 big names / ETFs. However, this portfolio has the largest allocation for 2021. My first time trying a more concentrated approach.
Do high stakes gamblers have ways of handling the logistics of that much money other than getting casino credit? It seems awkward and risky to carry more than a few thousand in cash, and I can't imagine ATMs would let you withdraw much more than that per day either.
Hotels & Resorts stocks are overpriced as fuck and the market hasn't realized it yet - $MGM 58k YOLO
In fact, most of the boomer stocks are overpriced right now due to the recent PFE and MRNA's vaccine news, but hotels & resorts stocks ($MGM, $MAR, $HLT) are the most inflated out of them all and will soon be given a reality check. This is just my speculation but I believe the public is overly optimistic about vaccines and how the subsequent distribution and logistics will pan out. I'll keep my DD short and sweet.
The Race between the 4 Biotechs:
50 mill doses to be produced by the end of 2020
Must be kept at -70 degrees Celsius (-94 degrees Fahrenheit)
Submitted to FDA for Emergency Use Approval (optimistic timeline for approval = end of 2020)
People with special licenses can administer the vaccine shots
20 mill doses to be produced by the end of 2020
Must be kept at -20 degrees Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit)
Hasn't been submitted to FDA for EUA yet, but getting documentation prepared
People with special licenses can administer the vaccine shots
Currently in Phase 3
Expected to release data by the end of 2020
Currently in Phase 3
Expected to release data in February 2021
Relative Pricing and Comparison
MGM Resort International (MGM):
-14% pps of pre-covid levels
Occupancy rate 44%
Revenue: -68% vs last LYQ3
25% employees terminated
Other Industry Leading Boomer Stocks
CCL (cruise) = -57% pps of pre-covid levels
AAL (airlines) = -54% pps of pre-covid levels
SPG (mall) = -42% pps of pre-covid levels
JWN (retail) = -48% pps of pre-covid levels
LVS (casino) = -18% pps of pre-covid levels
MGM is inflated compared to the other boomer stocks as it's very much near pre-covid levels.
A sub-premise of this post is that whatever brough MGM's stock price to what it is today was artificial and it isn't reflective of a healthy incline. The volume popped off per vaccine news, but now the volume has significantly dropped at the current levels. Buyer power is at its tipping point and a single bad news can easily trigger a large sell-off as the good news have now all been priced-in. But what will trigger the sell-off?
The Sell-off Triggers
The relief bill's benefits is all set to end on Dec 31 (this includesgovernment bailouts). We were expected to make stimulus negotiations post-election, but both sides aren't looking to work with one another. Other analysts predict that productive negotiations will only resume once Biden is in office which is in January.
Rising COVID cases. US COVID cases hasn't yet peaked as we continue to set new hospitalization and case records every day.
Thanksgiving is cancelled, but maybe even Christmas and New Years celebrations, too. Hotels&Resorts are one of the greatest attractions during Christmas, but it seems like we're going to stay in lockdown.
Vaccine Distribution&Logistics issue. As mentioned, countries and states will continue to face big challenges in vaccine delivery. One logistic issue in the headlines can induce great amounts of fear triggering sell-offs.
Conclusion: In the short to medium term, there are no news that awaits for hotel&resort stocks that points bullish. The buyer power has peaked and now, they are headed for a big correction. Position: $MGM 26.5p 12/31 Proof: $MGM 26.5p 12/31
Summary of Findings I am recommending that you take a close look at NamSys Inc. NamSys Inc is a simple predictable free cash flow generative business with a durable competitive advantage and a long runway ahead of it. It has a strong market position in the cash management industry and a growing SaaS business model. As of January 5th, 2020, NamSys Inc, which trades under the ticker symbol “CTZ”, closed at a share price of $0.90 or a market cap of $24.5m. It has about $5.5m in net cash on the balance sheet and the stock currently trades at a 9.3x pre-tax cash flow multiple, which translates to a 10.8% pre-tax free cash flow yield. At this price, I think it is worth a close look. Business Overview NamSys Inc is a small company based in Toronto, Ontario that specializes in providing SaaS software solutions to the cash management industry for financial institutions, retailers, casino operators, transit services, and to many different government entities. It sells 4 cloud based software solutions: Smart Safe Monitoring, Cash-In-Transit (CIT) logistics, Currency Controller (cash vault management), and Deposit Tracking (Banking). NamSys’s cloud based solutions are labelled under the brand name, “Cirreon ''. Cirreon Smart Safe - The Cirreon Smart Safe product segment represents over 70% of NamSys’s total revenues and it has been growing at approximately 20% compounded annually over the past 10 years. The software solution is being sold in 24 countries but most of it is in North America. There are 16,000 NamSys smart safes out of a total of 80,000 smart safes in North America, which translates to 20% market share in the smart safe segment. Cirreon CIT Logistic Software - The CIT logistic software assists cash-in-transit operators, who are responsible for safely transporting a business’s physical cash to the bank, to manage day-to-day operations. The Cirreon CIT software solution is an app that allows CIT providers to manage their fleet, track pickups and deliveries, strategically map routes, provide GPS navigation services, and also allows the CIT driver to communicate with the other drivers or customers. The CIT logistic software represents 4-5% of total revenues. CIT sales have been growing by 300% over the past two or three years, according to management, so it is a stream of revenue that will grow at huge rates over time. NamSys Inc has a long-term partnership with CIT providers across North America. The biggest CIT customer is Brinks, similar to the smart safe product. Brinks control 25% of the CIT service market in the cash management industry, which obviously exposes NamSys to 1/4 of the total market. Currency Controller - The Currency Controller is a cash vault system used to process cash, count cash, and fill cash orders. The Currency Controller can be found within ATM and bank machines and assists banks and CIT services with accounting, billing, management and fulfillment that they need to perform for customers. The Currency Controller segment represents about 20-30% of sales and it has grown at 50% compounded over the past 3 years. It is available with a license and a subscription-based pricing model although the subscription model is becoming more popular. Cirreon Banking - The Cirreon Banking app is a new product segment that has been introduced a few years ago and represents about 8% of total revenues. The Cirreon Banking app helps customers create and track deposits, place change orders, and request support, all from the customer’s phone. The Cirreon Banking app is sold as a subscription just like the rest of the Cirreon software solutions. Durable Competitive Advantage High Switching Costs - Once a retailer is hooked up onto the Cirreon platform, the idea of switching to another software platform is very unlikely and rather costly. Since Cirreon holds all of the retailer’s financial data related to invoices, cash inflows and outflows, and other important information, transferring this data on to a whole different platform will not only take up a lot of time and money, but sometimes might not be technologically possible. The Cirreon platform uses Java based programming, which makes it almost impossible to transfer data. In addition the learning curve for business owners and retailers when joining a new platform is very steep, which makes it uneconomical for NamSys customers to switch and spend hours, if not days, getting used to a whole new set up. The high switching cost nature of the software solution is evident with the high customer retention rates of the Cirreon platform, which management has reported to be very high. In the CIT logistics segment, NamSys provides navigation services and GPS software which interacts with the Cirreon platform to help retailers track where their cash is heading while also allowing CIT providers to communicate with local financial institutions. NamSys also has the benefit of high switching costs because CIT providers almost always stick with their logistic software providers and rarely switch. This is mainly because NamSys’s logistic software is already embedded in the CIT network system and the cost of reprogramming all the computers inside the CIT trucks and stopping business is so high, that it remains uneconomical for a NamSys customer in the CIT logistics space to switch over to another software provider. Product Differentiation - Cirreon integrates many different parts of the cash management cycle onto one platform. There are very few services like this in the cash management industry that offer an all-in-one, easy to use service. In fact, the closest product offering could be from Safeology, which is a new tech startup, prominent in Europe. However, even Safeology fails to offer the quantity and quality of services NamSys provides to customers, as they do not have an established smart safe software service or an online banking app. In the most recent annual shareholder meeting, management has asserted their ability to increase prices to improve profitability. However, from a strategic perspective, they prefer to continue to add value to customers by keeping prices stable and remaining much more competitive in the marketplace. If you can add enormous value by providing a better quality service at great prices, then it is almost inevitable that the business will succeed over the long term. Holding this philosophy over the past 5 years contributed to the stellar growth in the business and I expect this to continue. Brinks Long Term Partnership - NamSys and Brinks have strong business relationships with each other that should last over the long term. They both have a 3 year contract with an option to renew the contract at the end of each term. Since NamSys has already penetrated Brink’s ecosystem, it is expected that their customer relationship continues over the long term. With Brinks focusing on the hardware side and NamSys providing the software, both Brinks and NamSys have worked together to launch extremely successful cash management products and have been rapidly expanding to over 24 countries. NamSys is able to piggyback on Brink’s acquisition driven approach for expansion and its 23% share of the global cash management market, which provides countless opportunities for NamSys to grow and gain more market share in the software industry. For example when Brinks acquired Dunbar or G4S (both are cash management companies), they converted Dunbar and G4S’s old cash management software and integrated NamSys’s software in all the smart safes, CIT logistic networks, and currency controllers. As a result, NamSys inherits a strong market position and bigger network when Brinks acquires its competitors. Most of NamSys’s competitors lack valuable customer relationships with big players like Brinks and it is part of the reason why NamSys has been able to keep high returns on invested capital and operating margins for a decade. Revenue Breakdown and Capital Efficiency The SaaS revenue stream consists of hosted service fees and technical/maintenance support. It is clear that from 2015 to 2019, the recurring revenue stream has grown to 83% of total sales revenue. The licenses segment as a % of revenue has been decreasing as it represents an old fashioned method of selling software (customer provides a payment at the time the software is provided). This is more or less caused by customers abandoning licenses and getting onto the SaaS platform, which is a much cheaper option. The professional services segments represent the small customized projects NamSys does for specific customers but we will exclude this out of our analysis as it is negligible and very volatile. The business requires very little incremental capital to maintain and grow its line of business. ROIC has gone from 135.6% in 2015 to 463.8% in 2019, which illustrates the capital light nature of NamSys’s business. With very little tangible capital employed, NamSys was able to grow revenues at a 20% CAGR over the past five years and increase cash flow generation significantly. Revenue growth exceeded 20% in 4 out of the 5 past years, besides 2018. Revenue growth in 2018 fell down to 12% primarily due to NamSys’s decision to fully convert its currency controller segment, which makes up about 20% of revenues, into a SaaS model. Before, customers had to pay a big upfront cash payment (software licenses), but this all changed during 2018 when customers had to pay a fraction of the big upfront cash payment, due to the shift in payment terms. Thus, the lack of revenue growth in 2018 can be seen as an anomaly. Furthermore, gross margins have averaged about 71% over the past five years, declining 2-4% in 2018 and 2019 due to an increase in staffing costs. Operating and EBITDA margins are very healthy, averaging about 43% over the past 5 years, which illustrates stellar operating performance. FCF margin has averaged about 38% over the past 5 years, moving up and down due to aberrations in changes of working capital. Finally, the company has averaged about 29% FCF growth over the past 5 years, however the volatility in the changes in working capital create stark differences in the yearly figures. Moreover, based on analyzing NamSys’s historical growth and margins, one can conclude that NamSys is a predictable business that will grow over the long term. Opportunities to Grow The smart safe software revenue segment, which consists of 60% of total revenues, has grown at 28%+ per year over the past 5 years. With Brink’s, a $3B private security and protection company, being the largest customer, NamSys can piggyback on Brink’s international growth plans. NamSys has a strong customer relationship with Brink’s, as Brink’s builds the hardware for the smart safe and NamSys installs its proprietary software into the smart safe. At the moment, over 16,000 smart safes with NamSys software are being used in North America. However, in places like South America, the smart safe market is growing at 100% per year while in places like the Middle East or Africa, there is no smart safe market. NamSys has significant international opportunities to grow and expand its software service, which should be a prime driver of growth moving forward. If you do the math, Brinks projects that there will be 1.2 million potential new locations for smart safes to be installed worldwide. If the partnership between Brinks and NamSys gets hold of 10% to 20% of this market, this could mean about 60,000 to 120,000 smart safes installed within the next decade. Right now, NamSys Inc has around 16,000 to 18,000 smart safes installed. Over the next decade, I conservatively project that NamSys Inc can 3x to 7x their sales today, as long as they keep good customer relationships with Brink’s. Obviously, this is not accounting for the fact that Brink's is gaining a ton of market share through acquiring a lot of its competitors, which should yield more market share for NamSys in the software development space. In addition, NamSys is currently experiencing huge tailwinds in their CIT logistics and currency controller software lines of business as well. I think there is a great runway with Next Gen ATM and the whole trend behind CIT companies acquiring ATM networks. With Next Gen ATM, NamSys can be positioned to sell not only their CIT logistics application but also their cash vault (currency controller) product as well. Furthermore, NamSys is also participating in a pilot project with the US Federal Reserve, with testing new software products and solving issues relating to the transportation of cash. The revenues from this pilot project should materialize within the next 3-4 years, as it is a long term project. Management The CEO of NamSys Inc is Barry Sparks, who has been the CEO for over 15 years. Mr. Sparks is the President of Torvan Capital and owns 40% of NamSys common stock through this investment vehicle. The President and COO Jason Siemens has been with the company for about 23 years and owns about 0.8% of the common stock. Mr. Siemens is a very competent manager, who thoroughly understands the cash management business. Through analyzing all the past earnings transcripts and shareholder meetings, it is evident that Mr. Siemens has a clear strategy on building NamSys’s moat and growing the business. One of the best and worst capital allocation decisions management has ever made was entering the hardware market (a lower ROIC business) in 2006 and leaving it in 2011, which led to NamSys’s stellar financial performance from 2012 and onwards. In addition, there has been no shareholder dilution (through stock based compensation) over the past 10 years, which is beneficial for long term shareholders of this business. Along with the Board and Mr. Sparks and Mr. Siemens, I think NamSys is a well managed and shareholder friendly business and I do not foresee any managerial issues arising from the individuals who run this company. COVID-19 Impact NamSys Inc has not really been negatively impacted by COVID-19 when compared to most other companies. A lot of their customers are grocery chains and gas stations that were running even when most businesses were closed. Revenues for Q2 2020, period ending April 30th, increased by 14.5% when compared to Q2 2019. Revenue for the first six months of fiscal 2020 increased by 19.2% when compared to revenue in the same period in fiscal 2019. NamSys generated a significant amount of free cash flow and the cash balance grew to $5.5m, up from $4.3m from Q1 2020. COVID-19 had an immaterial impact on NamSys Inc from a financial standpoint, which further emphasizes the durable business model of NamSys Inc, which can grow even during a pandemic and recession. So, while most businesses are struggling amid today’s unstable business environment, NamSys is growing its market share and throwing off more cash. Valuation I think NamSys’s intrinsic value will grow and compound over time, given its sticky business model and long growth runway. Please see for the supporting financial model of the base case valuation. For the base case valuation, I think a reasonable case would be projecting out a revenue CAGR growth of 13.7% over the next 5 years until 2024 (compared to 24.6% between 2015 and 2019). Given the company has a history of growing revenues at 20%+ CAGR over the past five years and the future growth potential in its smart safe and Cirreon banking application segment, I expect operating margins and its cost structure to remain stable over time. Keeping the 15x FCF multiple constant, the value of the business will grow to about $2.00+ per share by 2024, which represents an IRR of 23% per year. I think this is a compelling investment opportunity with significant upside. First DD, so thanks for reading :) I have 2,500 shares at 0.88
My 1 Year Anniversary of Full Time Day Trading. 3 Years In The Business. What I Wish I Could Tell Myself Years Ago.
This industry has a lack of transparency so I'm more than happy to say I will provide lots of that throughout this post with screenshots. There are LOTS of imgur links to back what I say so it's not just words on a post expecting you to just believe what I'm typing. This post I suppose is "Part 2" my post back in April, "After 2 years of Daytrading. 7 months full time. Here's my advice". I'm doing this to update everyone who came/comes across this in the future. Yes, it is possible. No, it won't be easy. You will pay homage to the rite of passage into this career. I'll also provide some examples of styles of trading so for the newer aspiring traders, there will be some things I rarely see discussed on forums. So here's to 1 year of Full Time Day Trading TL;DR - You'll become desensitized to trading. Stubborn to other strategies (There are biggebaddemore lucrative strategies. Don't chase them. Why fix what's not broken? I know what works for me and I'm content with it. No strategy is better than another. It's a personal choice. ). Losing individual trades won't faze you, they're inevitable. Profiting certainly feels better. After a while, you won't be as enthralled to trade every morning, it'll become just another part of your day). Trading is just managing your money through a statistic and the medium to execute it is trading on your platform. Think: "If. Then. Because". Your trading plan should be that black and white. Ask "Why" for everything you do and use. If you can't answer it with documented results, drop it. I get a bunch of messages all the time from people asking - . Out of those who follow me and chat me seeking further tips through my previous posts. I'll be answering the FAQ's and addressing things I see frequently in this sub as far as trading axioms Disclaimer: I won't sugarcoat anything. I'll share my experiences and add pieces of advice I'd give to those who are currently experiencing the same thing becoming a full time day trader and what day to day life is like, the occasional distress, (DRAWDOWNS). Some of you follow my Twitter for the past few months where I post my daily watchlists with a snippet that reveals my DayTradingBuyingPower. I do this not to brag but to demonstrate that the account does yield growth, I pay myself, and there are days where the balance does not move because there was no edge. I also do this since nobody else shows their account performance. (Yes. You, Mr. YouTube gurus and wannabe gurus). We do this for income, the numbers on our accounts are real. Treat it as such. Get your initial capital out of your account THEN try to "Scale your account" with your profits AKA The Market's Money. I'll go over: •FAQ's that I get in my inbox (I'm still welcome to further questions if I don't answer here) •Decision Fatigue (You will experience this) •The previous year (2019-2020) of ups and downs •How to use my watchlists that I post on Twitter in the morning to your advantage •The pivotal moment that changed my trading career (NFLX 10-17-19) •The road to becoming a full time trader. (It won't be fun unless you're handed the money) •You'll have a better grasp of my strategy (Between ProTip 4 and 5. ProTip 8.) There are 10 "ProTips" throughout the post that I wish I could tell myself years back and I'll periodically throw them in here as the post goes on. I make posts long in order to segregate those serious about this business and those who will just become another statistic in the failure rate of this business. At the end of this post, I'll go over the frequent questions I receive such as: (Answers to FAQ at bottom of post.)
"How do you prepare for a trading day?"
"What would you go back to tell yourself?"
"Books?" (The most abused question, but I get it. I could start a public library with just trading books I bought over the years)
"What is your background?"
"What is a normal day for you?"
"How did you discover your strategy?"
"What did you do/How did you get started?"
"What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %. Most are measured in "R".)
"Is enough to start trading?"
"Why do you need so many monitors"? (This one is rarely asked but I do see it discussed on platforms and people trading on mobile phones love giving flack to anybody who trades on multiple monitors. Hint: Everyone's different. Whatever works for the individual. There are no rules in trading. The only rule is that it works.)
Background: I heard about daytrading during the 2008 crash while in high school. We all want to make more while working less. I entertained day trading from time to time but always realized I never had enough money. Horrible mindset because I could have still researched WHILE saving money to put into my trading business. 2015 -I opened my first trading account with Scottrade while in the Marines. Apparently if you have a net worth of over $1,000,000 you can get out early (Biggest rumor ever). I frivolously bought crap penny stocks. In short - I was a hair away from gambling. What made it NOT gambling was the fact that at least I owned something tangible (Securities of a company) and anything can happen. Buy low sell high was my strategy. Didn't work obviously. No idea what I was doing. I'd buy and hold hoping to wake up to the stock price being way higher and it never happened. •ProTip #1 : If you hold a trade overnight... It is not daytrading. Stop turning into an investor because you can't admit a minor defeat. 2017 - I started taking this business seriously while working in the oilfield as a Logistics Planner (If you're wondering what company since I am asked this from time to time, Google: "World's largest oilfield services company"). No kids, girlfriend/wife or financial obligations. I worked 10AM - 7PM CST and would trade the open from home for roughly 1 hour. Later I was offered to be a Data Analyst... Only downside was... I couldn't trade since I had to be at work now at 8AM CST during the market open. In the moment of signing the offer letter, I was bummed thinking, "No more trading," That wasn't the case though. You can still build your trading business with a 9-5 and while never making one trade. The data is there. •ProTip #2 :We all see the same data. It's there forever. Many strategies show their edge both live and in hindsight the same. (Especially if you trade patterns). You CAN build your business as a trader without even taking a trade. You CAN build your strategy while working a 9-5. Just because you're not trading, does not mean you can't build your business through research. You won't know how you'll react to the losses but at least you can diagnose the raw data with a large enough sample size for assurance and confidence. If you have a 9-5 and want to go fulltime into this business. Stay for a bit, save, live so far beneath your means that it is almost miserable, (depending on your expenses, area you live, family etc) and get a few hundred sample sizes of your strategy! And for your PTO/days off... trade the open. I sacrificed my vacation days to trade. After 2 years in corporate America, eating cheap food, never going out, saving relentlessly, I made the decision to just do it and resigned. I went straight into the ring of fire known as trading. That was on: September 23rd, 2019 ""(Sound familiar?) When you hear these types of comments.. your response should be: "Nobody put the time I put into this. The 90%+ who fail, don't have it all written out, computerized backtests, manual backtests, statistics, SOP manuals, JUST like the job I have which is a business, I'm just another cog in their wheel. I'll just be wearing all the hats in my trading business. Instead of Oil&Gas, it's just for trading". One thing I see here a lot is people saying to trade X amount of months/years or make X. •ProTip #3 -Think in man hours, not calendar. Example: Trader A puts in 1 hour of study/work/research everyday for 1 year. (365 Hours) Trader B puts in 12 hours of work every day for 4 months. (~1,450 Hours) Trader A lives in a major city while Trader B lives in the middle of nowhere. (Think cost of living) 2 totally different living expenses and 2 different calibers of dedication. I'd put my money on Trader B because he put in more man hours. (~1,000 more hours on the clock to be more exact). ProTip #4 - Have a cushion in your account AND your personal bank account. Having a strategy is great but you won't know entirely if you can fulfill and execute your plan until you experience the ups and downs both short and long term. A strategy is constant over long periods of time... there will be days, weeks, and perhaps a month here and there where you aren't making much money. We hear all the time, "Trade like a casino". Casinos don't make money day after day but the odds are in there favor over the long haul. Month 1 of full time trading was great: Immediately after going full time, the first month (September 2019 to October 2019), I did super well. Business as usual. No stress. Everything going as planned. No turbulence. At least not like I had ever experienced... The 2 prerequisites I had before resigning was:
Show consistency in returns. Consistent Sharpe Ratio.
Make a 4 figure trade (I achieved this while short 100 shares on ROKU September 20th, 2019 and even made a victory post if you scroll down my profile's posts.)
First life-changing trading lesson learned as a full time trader: That money printing spree ended on NFLX October 17th, 2019. Less than 1 month of being a full time trader. Deviating and going against my plan I actually made $500 in a matter of 4 minutes. If you follow my watchlists on Twitter, I always trade with the direction of the gap. If I notate, "Long Watches" that means I will only trade it IF (and only IF) I see a long biased pattern. Likewise I will only be looking to short my "Short Watches". Plenty of times I'll call out a ticker and it immediately goes the other way. No harm no foul because there was no long biased pattern to confirm my thesis. On 10-17-2019, I went against my plan and it worked.. NFLX gapped up to resistance and I went short when it tanked off of a short pattern.(This is known as fading). The market gave me a free lunch and then some. So now I'm walking on air in my mind: "I'm an absolute unit" "I'll do it again and clear another $500 to make it a 4 figure day before 9:30AM Central" "Should have quit my job way earlier being this good." Within 30 minutes of the open. I gave all $500 back. Yes I wanted to trade it back. Never have I had the desire to smash anything but I do understand those who do! Yes I stood there and felt like each passing second was wasted opportunity. The next 24 hours were long! ProTip #5:It's circumstances like that that help you in the long run. FunFact: I never once deviated from my plan since. Not ever again. "I could have paid for my groceries and electric for the month after 4 minutes of trading if I just took the free pass the market gave me" I felt dumb but in hindsight, I'm glad at what happened. It was this exact instance that married me to my strategy/business plan. The next day and the 7 trading days following. I didn't make 1 profiting trade. My longest ever drawdown - 11 straight trades. While researching I found out this was Decision Fatigue (I'll go over this shortly below) Put yourself in that situation... You have bills and your income is strictly trading. I don't care how much a robot you think you are or how strongly you believe in probabilities, when you were in an office less than a month ago making almost 6 figures sitting in an air conditioned office knowing direct deposit is on its way every other Friday no matter how well or poorly you performed at work.. Now you're in the hot seat. Its a bottomless feeling. Now all of your friends and families words are ringing in your head. But just like a boxing match.. you gotta take a hit to get a hit. Win some, lose some, shake hands and get back to normal life. Water under the bridge. Mind you: •No guaranteed direct deposit every 2 weeks. •No more medical/dental insurance. •401K retirement is no longer being matched. 11 trades is nothing. You only require ~5.5 trades at 2:1RRR to make it back OR 3.5 trades at 3:1RRR. It's nothing especially in your research because you can easily just scroll a little more and see, "Oh that's just a drawdown. No big deal". How will you react in real time? Will you buckle or choke? But the thing is, I was skipping trades out of fear and JUST so happened to be picking all of the unsuccessful ones. (Decision Fatigue) Think about those 2 weeks of being in a drawdown. Half of the month. You're not just stagnant, your account is bleeding slowly but surely. Next time you're looking at your spreadsheet/backtest/predictive model/research.. try to put yourself in those days of drawdown. It's not just 11 boxes of red with "-1R" or "Loss" in them. The screenshot above on Imgur is just a recent example. Think about your daily routine, going to the gym, hanging with friends, grocery shopping, cooking, going to bed, waking up, doing a routine, then losing again.. and again.. and again. Try to think of life during those 300+ hours (Weekends too) of, "I haven't made money. I've lost money. And I still have bills. After paying them, I'll be closer to my set Risk of Ruin". Here's a lesson you won't learn before going fulltime but I'll do my best to emphasize it here: Pick a strategy. And stick with it. It can literally be anything. Don't spread yourself thin watching 20+ tickers and be a jack of all patterns/tickers. Be a master of 1 pattern and master of 1 circumstance. There's this real thing called "Decision Fatigue" which explains exactly why what happened.. happened. The article explains that the 2 outcomes of this mental strain known as "Decision Fatigue" is:
Sound familiar? Does it kind of make sense now? As a new trader you have YouTube, Facebook, StockTwits, Twitter, "gurus", books recommended on Amazon, all throwing their ideas/strategies around, the market has opportunities littered all over.. Decision Fatigue is inevitable for the unprepared. Decision Fatigue happens in every profession. If you mess up at your 9-5, its just a blunder, your paycheck will remain the same. Just a slap on the wrist and move on. With trading, you make a mistake.. it's less food on your table, lights don't stay on, and/or water isn't running. That pressure adds up. No wonder so many fail... The signs of Decision Fatigue: •Procrastination. •Impulsivity. •Avoidance. •Indecision. When you find what clicks with you AND its either statistically or performance proven, have the courage to risk a healthy sum of your capital into it. There are strategies/patterns/styles of trading littered all over the internet: Very broad example: "IFcircumstance happensTHEN"Execution". Stoploss is XYZ. Target is XYZ.BECAUSEover a series of Y trades, I will make $X,XXX.xx". ProTip #6 :Strategies are all over the internet. It's your account/money, backtest it. People share their strategies here all the time and although I don't agree with them because I know what works for me, it's something to chew off of for you newer traders. YouTube is a harbor with people who give just enough info to figure their style out.You will lose trades. Sit for some screen-time and pay homage to the edge that you discover. All in due time. Insert key metrics and find correlations. This is how you create checks and balances to create/formulate a black and white trading plan. When I first started doing this, my spreadsheet(s) had so many columns it was annoying and would kill my desire to continue working. You'll find things that are imperative and some that are unimportant. For a lack of more colorful terms: "Throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks"Trim the fat. Rinse and repeat.
Here's some things I used to remind myself of and perhaps it'll ring some bells for you:
•Surrender your capital to your edge. If you truly accept the risk and trust your proven edge, losses don't feel like anything nor do profits. Although we're not here to put on losing trades and yes it does feel nice to profit. I still from time to time will excited when I hit target after a series of multiple profiting trades depending on my mood. •If you're nervous or your heart starts beating quicker when you hear the sound effect of a trade getting entered/filled. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself if you're truly accepting the risk. •Things you can't take to the bank:
Number of trades.
"This one great trade that I hit target in less than 30 seconds and I got filled better than expected"
All of these are integral metrics. But you're trading to make money. It's up or down, green or red, profit or loss, TRUE or FALSE. So with that said, find what works flawlessly and is easy to follow. Checks and Balances. Then allocate a good sum of risk into it. I read it here all the time, "Don't risk too much" and that's great and true for new traders. But don't sell yourself short. Push yourself over the edge and admit that you know your stuff. Think of Trader A and Trader B. If you've put the time in.. don't sell yourself short. You've built enough courage to learn a business so many fail at. This business has such a negative connotation. But remember that not everybody can handle meritocracies and that's exactly what the market is. Don't try to be the best, just work harder than everyone else and the output of your input will be relative. ProTip #7:YouTube trading ads from gurus... they're subconsciously making you think you're a novice trader.It's in their marketing. They study marketing psychology. The EASIEST things to sell:
People that are desperate for those things are the most vulnerable and these "Traders" marketers are fantastic at portraying all 3 of those things at once. •ProTip #8 (Broken record alert) :Write a business plan. Your strategy shouldn't take longer than 4 sentences to explain to another trader. When you have a plan that's proven through a statistic and WAIT for it to happen, you feel100Xbetter taking the trade. You don't even care too much when it results in a loss. Because that was your plan, you accept it much better, and you know it was just an expense for a winning trade. Want my strategy? "I scan for stocks with a market cap of over 250M, 10k shares premarket, gapping to support or resistance, priced over $10, and I look for a pattern biased to the direction of the overnight gap. It isn't rocket science. Check my Twitter, look at the dates I posted, and you'll notice the gist. Yes this is an edge but not the entire edge. How fast can you sift through 15 time frames? How long does it take you to fill out your order ticket? Your Fibonacci time extensions with 5 EMA's and Bollinger Bands aren't helping you. They're lagging. If they work for you, great. In my experience, they hindered my visibility. Pro Tip #9: Yes statistics are highly applicable to trading. Patternsdowork. All patterns do is tell you WHEN to enteexit, and how many shares. Humans will never think differently of money. Be the frontrunner of the market's emotions. Nobody remembers the indecisive leader. Risk taking is a commonality amongst leaders. Trading requires courage and it's O.K. to show a bit of confidence as long as you also have the humility to admit when you're in a bad trade.(Notice how I didn't put, "wrong". You're only "wrong" when you deviate from a proven strategy.) ProTip #10:Risk management is 24/7. I've never heard anyone mention this but think about it a little bit. Having financial obligations can become stressful regardless of how you earn your income but its far more stressful while running a business. Not just any business, but a business where you can go to work on your A-game, do every single last thing right, trade without emotion etc... and still walk away with less money than what you came to work with. Meanwhile somebody who JUST started trading made a 4 figure profit not knowing what the heck the difference betweenETB, HTB, or NTB. Think of it like this, a JV high school baseball player can hit a homerun off of an MLB pitcher once.. but how will he fare at the end of the season? Traders don't predict stock prices, traders predict the outcome over hundreds of trades. People chat me asking what TO do rather than what NOT to do. You don't learn labor intensive jobs or how to fly a plane by what to do.. you learn what NOT to do to stay alive. That's all I have. Once you have a trading plan underway and you're executing it, you don't have much time when your hobbies are cheap but I still do respond to chats/messages. I do get asked from a previous post when I'll build a website and to answer that: I'm learning how to build a site on rainy days. Can't put a definitive date on it. I will say that its coming, if you don't give up on this business in the next year or so, you'll see it. What I plan on putting on there:
Position size Calculators
Dictionary with examples
I just don't want some generic WordPress site. I want my website to be stellar and a great resource for aspiring traders. Something I didn't have learning this business. I want it to be something I'd consider a staple in a trader's resources. Perhaps one day it will be referenced on this sub frequently. FAQ:
"How do you prepare for a trading day?" I get behind the computer about 20 minutes before the bell. Reason being: "If you study long. You'll study wrong". If the chart isn't grabbing my attention and gets me excited, then I flick to the next ticker. I don't even know the companies I trade half the time nor do I care about a news report some journalist wrote. Also there is no magic news outlet that lets you know about "Major events that affect stock prices". If there was, I wouldn't be here because we're all subscribed to the same edge nor would I be trading my style.
"What would you go back to tell yourself?" Get more data. Save a little more, your hairline and sleep schedule will thank you. Take only perfect trades and don't feel forced to trade. There will be days you don't touch an order ticket. And days where you are busy and have tunnel vision. Next thing you know its time to shut it down for the day.
"Books?" - I try to humble myself when answering this but off the cuff, they're all mediocre. Andrew Aziz's was ok, definitely get it, it's only a few bucks on Kindle. Just don't expect it to give you strategies BUT it will give you ideas. If you're brand new, it is good as it will teach you the common vernacular of a day trader. Mark Douglas was interesting but his YouTube seminar recordings are much better. No book, Facebook group, YouTube channel is going to be the end all be all perfect strategy. Expect losses. Don't be a one hitter quitter after suffering a few tiny losses/paper cuts. Stick to it. Most books will help you familiarize yourself with the common vocabulary amongst traders and will hint ideas. It's your job to formulate the strategy and template for research.
"What is your background?" I was a logistics planner for a major oilfield services company. Later I then became a data/buyer analyst so yes, data analytics/research was a 2nd language for me entering trading. I did have that upper hand and did shave off months if not years for me.
"What is a normal day for you?" I'm always done trading after 10:30AM Central. I will hold onto a trade until right before the bell if it hasn't hit either target or StopLoss by the time I leave the house but it is absolutely closed in entirety by 2:55PM Central. After I trade, I enjoy the day. No I'm not riding around in my Lambos posting IG/Snapchat (I have neither) stories of my profits with my private jet waiting on a runway trying to sell an $7 eBook or a $100 membership (HINT HINT). I grill/cook, read, workout, ride my motorcycle, attack my other sources of income (small businesses I'm building), hit the driving range, shoot guns, etc. I live in Texas. Life is cheap and fun here.
"How did you discover your strategy?" I bought TradeIdeas premium, went through all of their computerized backtesting patterns, tested them. Then did what I mentioned earlier... Tried to find correlations in metrics. It distilled the trades to a strict criteria and here I am. I post on average 4-5 tickers on my watchlist. 7 max. I do not like spreading my attention thin across multiple tickers. I do not recommend buying TradeIdeas, it does have lots of bugs.
"What did you do/How did you get started?" Was a data analyst, was good at research and applied it to trading. My incentive was, "I could have made more money trading rather than sitting in 2+ hours of roundtrip traffic and 9 hours in an office. The data is there. Everybody sees the same charts all over the world. There are ways to make this possible"
"What is your % return?"(Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %) I trade to make money AND pay myself, so my equity curve will look like a small loss or small gain after I pay myself. % return? I measure my account's performance in Sharpe Ratio and Risk Units. My Sharpe Ratio is ~1.85. While I yield roughly .8 - 1 R per trading day. Some weeks I make 10R. Some weeks I lose 2R. Yeah one week I might make $2,500. But the next week I might lose $300. The following week my strategy will yield $0 and the last week I might make $1,000. Some weeks suck. Some weeks are great. But overall. Just shy of 1R per trading day. Some days I'm super busy taking trade after trade. Some days I'll shut it down after 5 minutes without even filling out an order ticket. Some days I won't even see the open because there is no edge for me.. Keywords... "For me".
"Is enough to start trading?" Depends on where you live. Are you restricted to PDT? If not then how much are you obligated to expenses? I live in Texas. Things are cheap here. If you live in NYC or The Bay Area your expenses will be astronomical compared to mine. A $30,000 account is totally doable for a single Texan with low monthly expenses. Now if you're in California or New York? I'm sure you'll fall below 25k if you have 1 bad month. Also depends on if you have other sources of income or a full/part time job. I encourage every trader and aspiring trader to have multiple sources of income, don't rely solely on trading. Not just for the sake of mitigating pressure but also for sanity. If you have a family to provide for, I don't know what that's like, you never know when Little Johnny is going to randomly pick up Trombone lessons for a school program/play while little Suzie needs transmission work in her car because a simple solenoid went out. $1,700 later.
"Why do you need so many monitors?"I use 3 for trading. The 4th is for music. The other 2 are useless while trading. That's for trading though. When I made the decision to go full time, I knew I was about to go off the chain with research. And sifting between spreadsheets, a platform to see multiple timeframes for a pattern to backtest. My attention span is short, I'll lose my train of thought before I open the other tab to input data. But the main reason was for research. It's such a time saver and is a headache repellant when doing research while everything is laid out in front of you. Now that I have a system. I'll most likely be treating myself to 2 ultrawides for Christmas.
As always, thank you to everybody who takes time out to message me and letting me know some people read these and show appreciation. I would say, "Good luck" but there is no luck in trading. Just statistics. Remember that! In conclusion: Yes. Full time trading is possible, depending where you live/monthly expenses and obligations. You're more likely to become a profitable trader than a professional athlete. There is a level of uncertainty each day, perhaps each week, doubtful each month, and definitely not each year. If I ever want a raise, I just consult my business plan and financials, then decide if I can handle it mentally. If you have medical issues, get a part time job for the benefits. If you're healthy, just be careful. All the best! -CJT2013
Pre-Conference Question - What do you think he'll announce?
A harsher lecture on being a GOOD NEIGHBOR?
Modified Phase 3 ala New Orleans?
Moving back to Phase 2 or 1?
Or will it be an unexpected Stay At Home order?
Some other option?
NOTE: The summary of this press conference is transcribed LIVE. The summary may contain spelling and grammatical errors which until it is able to be corrected once the conference concludes. NOTE: The summary may contain spelling and grammatical errors. Gov JBE
Anyone who has been paying attention to the news whether internationally, nationally, or state you know COVID-19 is going in the wrong direction unmoving very fast in the wrong direction.
Louisiana is experiencing the third surge of COVID-19.
Nov alone the US has had more new cases than in any other months and hospitalizations are at a record high nationally. Higher than other surges.
Yesterday the US added more than 169,000 new cases in one day and 898 deaths.
This week's WH Coronavirus Taskforce Report shows 474 new cases per 100,000 people last week we had 172 new cases per 100,000 people. The national average is 356 cases per 100,000.
So this is the first week in many weeks that LA has had more new cases than the national average.
Today we report ___ new cases and sadly 39 additional people have lost their lives to the virus for a Toal amount of ___ deaths. Reporting 1,052 hospitalizations, not the first of the month we had less than 600. Today we are up 40 than yesterday with more than 350+ net new COVID19 hospitalizations. 113 patients on mechanical ventilators.
When we see what's happening in state and across all regions we have to be very cautious about hospitalizations and maintain the capacity to give life-saving care to covid and non-covid patients.
Trajectory we are on it is imperative we take action now.
If we could flip a switch and get 100% adherence to mitigation measures to all measures we are still 2 weeks from seeing changes.
We are in for a rough patch, and the degree we flatten the curve and are successful will depend on eery Louisianan.
We are stepping a step back to a revised Phase 2. So Phase 2 with some modifications.
We got out of the prior surge by moving to Phase 2.
What does that mean?
Will get into that later...
Wants to get ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday and the extended holiday season.
Data includes info thru Friday, Nov 20.
Thanks National Guard, GOSHEP, and the LDH for working very hard and working over the holiday.
Gating Criteria Slides:
What we are seeing is as concerning as it has ever been. We were lucky to have a reprieve from the rest of the countries rise in cases for a few weeks we are now where a large portion of the country is.
Top left shows % of patients coming into ER departments across the state with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 you can see the prior spikes and now it is increasing again.
Top right show new cases on a rolling 7-day average you can see the first and second spikes and now the increase we are on which is almost identical to where we were going up in the second spike and clearly we have not hit the top yet.
Bottom left you can see the % positivity dated back to the date of collection and that is increasing as well up to 8.1% now will be posted on the dashboard tomorrow. You will see testing volume is also increasing. There is more COVID so more people are getting tested due to more exposure plus the increase around testing around the holiday. An increase in testing volume has no bearing on testing positivity. An increase in positivity and testing volume is a strong signal we are experiencing a lot of COVID.
Bottom right is the amount of hospitalized patients with COVID19 you can see the two spikes and now a sharp increase. It is a rate of increase that our hospitals cannot stand for very much longer.
Region analysis - every region across the state are seeing similar increases.
Region 1 Orleans - increase across the board.
Region 2 EBR - increase across the board.
Region 3 River parishes - increase across the board.
Region 4 - increases across the board.
Region 5 Lake Charles - increases across the board.
Region 6 Can LA - increases across the board with a very sharp increase in new cases and hosp.
Region 7 - increase across the board.
Region 8 - increase across the board.
Region 9 - increases across the board.
A month ago it was a mixed bag with some areas plateauing or increasing.
Now the entire state for all gating criteria is increasing, (only Can LA is plateauing for COVID-like illness reports).
Still have capacity across the state but this is a lagging indicator so if you act when hospitals are at capacity it is too late.
People waiting a long time to get a bed. One ER had to use recliners in the ER while people waited for a bed to open up.
Rural/smaller hospitals are having a difficult time transferring patients to other locations. Not every ICU bed is equal and some conditions require more expertise from an advanced center. Only a handful exist across the state. Even if a rural hospital has an ICU available if a patient presents with needing an advanced team and there are none available they may have to wait a couple of days before they get transferred in. That's a delay of care and has consequences.
Hospitals are stretched and already at staffing capacity. A nurse may typically care for 4-5 patients may now be caring for 6-7.
These things have consequences and it is just the beginning because we haven't hit capacity yet. This is a warning we have to act now. There are things we are working to preserve in the state and the ability to access normal hospital care is one of those priorities. We do not want to have to delay scheduled procedures.
The path ahead is dangerous. This is a dangerous time for Louisiana.
The trajectory we are on is dangerous. We are on a similar trajectory as before.
Now it is flu season so we have extra patients in the hospital.
Weather turning cold so more people indoors = more transmission.
Peak of the holiday season coming up so there's a temptation to gather. Gathering = more transmission.
Previous increases we were not in lockstep with the rest of the country. Every other state is seeing runs on hospital care and demands of their hospital staff at the same time we are. If we need to ask for help, it may not be there this time. In fact, we don't think they will be available because they will be caring for their own state's patients.
Questions for Dr Kanter about data
Related to Halloween? Seems people are willing to gather for Thanksgiving. Are we going to see a worsening 2 weeks after Thanksgiving We are already seeing just about as steep of an increase as we can get it really can't get much steeper than that. I don't know, looking back to Halloween, it was part of it. I think increases from other states was bleeding over into our particularly in Northern LA. Plus we are tired, COVID fatigue is real, and it's easy to get complacent. Even without Thanksgiving coming ahead we will continue to get worse. I don't know how much worse it gets with Thanksgiving. I cannot emphasize this more than enough if you need to make a decision for your family talk to someone who has had it, experiencing the disease, or someone who has worked in the affected healthcare facilities during those two surges. How much is being driven by small gatherings indoors and if so it doesn't seem restrictions matter than much Small gatherings have been a larger component than months ago, there is no question about that but that is just one slice. We continue to see a lot of cases tied to bars, restaurants, events, and churches as well. Mitigation measures are going to be significant in their effect but not absolute. The other side is that people really need to make responsible decisions when no one is looking. No one will police who parities but I want families to take it seriously and know what the real risks are and make an informed decision. The more families are informed the more they will be likely to say for this year, for my family, it is just not worth it. Gov. JBE
We have already been told that for example if we will request help from he Fed gov in respect to medical care to Louisiana there are 12 individual and discrete things we have done first before we can be considered.
Strong indication we cannot count on that.
Difference between Spring and Summer surges when we did have medical personnel available from requests to the Federal government at that time.
Partially important for Northern and Central LA. I do not know how hard it will be to go back in the gating criteria for those regions but if you go to Region 6. If you look right at the summer surge we never got those numbers as far down as we wanted to we never got those numbers down to where we wanted to. So the baseline of going into the third surge is much higher relatively speaking to the state as a whole. So we are already in a much more difficult place.
Statewide the non-COVID patient population is higher now than it was in the Spring or the Summer.
Region 7 you will see the right of the summer surge the numbers did not come down to be even close to where they were before the summer surge started. So they have a very high baseline of cases.
Region 8 the same thing.
Our numbers are worse and they are getting worse everywhere so I hesitate to bring up regions 6,7, and 8 because people might think that's the only places we need to be focused on. That is not true, but I will tell you its a particular concern if you are in Central or Northern LA because you have such a high baseline going into this.
While we need adherence to restrictions everywhere it is particularly acute in Regions 6,7, and 8.
Breakdown of Phase 2 (modified) will become effective tomorrow and last 28 days (4 weeks) expiring on Dec 23:
Statewide surge requiring a statewide effort.
Follows the White House Coronavirus Task Force recommendations.
Last time we had such a large single-day increase was in July -- which is when we took action through implementing Phase 2 and the mask mandate -- and collectively the people across Louisiana responded and we bent the curve.
Time for us to rise again and meet the challenge before us.
With the Holiday season before us we really gotta pay attention to this now so we do not overburden our hospitals to not deliver care. I do not want to have hospitals have to cancel elective surgeries or medical procedures want. Delayed non-emergency procedures and surges often transmit into emergencies later on. Do not want doctors to have to make crisis care decisions pitting cases against one another due to a lack of resources.
We have avoided crisis care during our previous waves because we worked together to flatten the curve.
If there was ever a time to step up and be a good neighbor, whether it is to your actual neighbor or to someone in LA you have never met, that time is now.
People do not stop having car accidents because of a pandemic. There are still critical care needs apart from COVID.
Do it for the medical professionals as well who have been overworked since March.
To keep schools open.
Encouraging all employers public and private to maximize the use of telework where possible.
Ask families to engage in safe holiday-related activities. When you gather with those outsides from your household the more times you do it the more you roll the dice and the more likely it is that you or multiple people get sick. With community spread the dice are loaded against you. I ask you not to do this, especially during the holidays. It is what the CDC and LDH recommend.
Start planning now for a safe Christmas and Hanukkah.
Reduction in gathering sizes for businesses & houses of worship
50% for occupancy with social distancing and masks for restaurants, coffee shops, cafes, gyms, casinos, and video poker, and non-essential retail businesses.**
Essential is determined by the Dept. of Homeland Security.
75% for occupancy with social distancing and masks for churches and places of worship.**
Reduction in gathering sizes at bars other restrictions remain in place.
Bars in parishes with greater than 5% must close to indoors consumption can have outdoor seating of up to 50 people, seated and spaced out, and masks mandated.
Bars in parishes with less than 5% can allow indoor consumption up to 25% occupancy seated and spaced out; outdoor consumption encouraged and masks mandated.
Reduction in gathering sizes at event centers
Indoors limited to 25% occupancy, make required up to 75.
Outdoors limited to 25% occupancy, masks required, up to 150 where social distancing is not possible.
Reduction of sporting event occupancy
Limited to 25% occupancy.
When LDH updates the two-week case incidence numbers tomorrow there will be some parishes where bars close, that were going to happen regardless of these changes because those parishes would have exceeded the 10% that was previously required.
Now allowing outdoor seating.
Statewide mask mandate remains in effect
It was a critical part of slowing the spread in the summer and is a critical part now.
Now we know wearing a mask also reduces transmission to you as well as those around you.
Doing everything we can to keep schools open.
Local decision how schools do this.. if they are in person, vertical, or hybrid.
Do not have an expectation that by Dec 23rd we will reduce restrictions a couple of days ahead of Christmas.
All data indicates we in for a couple of rough months.
No one should believe we will relax restrictions around that time.
I hope and pray, and believe, we will not have to put more restrictions in place before then.
Will be dependent on if the people of Louisiana embrace the mitigation measures and flatten that curve again. If we stay on the current trajectory we will be forced to put more restrictions in place.
Everyday households need to stick together and reduce interaction with those outside of their household.
Any activities that do take place should take place outside rather than inside.
Odds are 20x higher to catch the virus indoors than outdoors when the same activity takes place.
We are expecting rain this week perhaps staying with us through Thanksgiving and after.
Even if you planned the safest possible event with it intended to be outdoors there is a good chance you will not be able to do that.
Now is your opportunity to adjust your Thanksgiving plans.
Do not have people from different households come indoors together. The virus doesn't care if you are a relative.
If you want a Christmas without loved ones in the hospital, or worse, you need to be extremely careful on Thanksgiving and every day.
Next few weeks would normally be holiday party time - office, block, family, etc.
Holiday parties are a recipe for disaster now. Asking people to forgo those parties.
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, it is not a high-speed train heading in our direction, I believe in a few months we will be able to put the pandemic behind us. Next month we can start vaccinating in small numbers and will take some time to get to the general population. Do not get in your mind we will have to mask up and physically distance forever. There is an excellent chance that next Thanksgiving will be the best one ever. While there is COVID fatigue and I know it is real, it is also real that we are looking for renewed interest and compliance for a finite amount of time. I hope it inspires people to do what is required and know they won't have to do it forever. The next few months are critical. We need everyone to be on the same page.
Holidays are about showing your love for those you care about. The best way to love someone right now is to give them COVID. So like it says, "pass the pie and not COVID" that is our mission. That is the mission for everybody in Louisiana.
Follow the commonsense public health measures, the restrictions, and mitigation measures.
They work and have worked before.
Mitigation measures: wear a mask, stay 6ft apart from that outside of your household, wash your hands for 20 seconds, stay home when sick, and protect the most vulnerable from this disease (65+ in age and those with co-morbidities).
Thanks to all public health workers.
Owe a debt of gratitude for those who have worked so hard for months now. We should not make it harder than it needs to be. We should all do our part.
Epidemiologists in Louisiana say we may be getting diminishing returns on our introduction of restrictions than what we previously saw. Are you concerned that the impact of the introduction of these restrictions will be more gradual and the implications that may have I am concerned about an awful lot as it is related to COVID19 and this pandemic. There is not one easy decision I have made nor one that has brought me joy. I am convinced that if the people of Louisiana will embrace these mitigation measures and restrictions, be patient and selfless, and ensure compliance that we will flatten the curve again. That is what I know. There are no magic tricks to be worked here. The only way to stop a surge is with restrictions and mitigation measures. So with the numbers increases here and around the country as they are the sense of urgency that you see coming out of leaders in Washington right now, as seen with Vice President Pence and the Coronavirus Task Force the other day, everyone should understand that this a very very serious situation. We have to do our part in order to slow the spread. It has to be a collective effort. No one should say is 99% of the people do it that's good enough I don't have to personally do it... that doesn't work. We all have to see it as a common effort that we all play our part. If someone would have presented a better option to flatten the curve I would have taken it. I know we have COVID fatigue here and around the country. If there was something other than wearing masks, washing your hands and staying home when you are sick, and so forth I would embrace it. It doesn't exist. That is why you hear this coming out of Washington and all the other healthcare workers how important these are. So let's do it. Let's flatten the curve again. I feel very comfortable that in several months, not sure when we will have enough of our population vaccinated that I believe we can start putting in the rear view mirror. Until now and then we have to do what is necessary. I do not know if there is another surge after this one, I pray not, but we know we are surging now. Are you trying to change the way enforcement has been handled on these public health issues. Obviously the problem is people aren't following previous guidelines.. so are you making changes to enforcement? We will continue to work with businesses of all types and venues to ensure that they understand that the restrictions are what rules they have to abide by. Individuals and businesses can get more information at opensafely.la.gov and you will get more information. Will there be enforcement? Yes, there will be, but I am going to say what I've said back in March and every time since then, if the people in Louisiana insist we enforce our way through this we are doomed to failure. There are 4.66 million Louisianas and 10s of thousands of business and quite frankly we cannot enforce our way through this. We are going to be asking people to comply, do compliance visits, respond to complaints, and where people refuse to come int o compliance you can expect enforcement. That will not get us through this surge. That will not protect the health of our fellow Louisianans, it is better than not doing any enforcement. We need to have people doin this because it is the right thing to do. They need to embrace it, not because it is pleasant but at the end of the day this about people's lives are talking about. We are doing our very best to strike the balance between lives on one hand and livelihoods on the other. When it comes to economy, to business, to employers, to livelihoods, the best thing we can do is put this virus behind us. Are the rules for temporary conditional permits allowing bars to operate as restaurants remain in effect? Yes and we currently have 372 bars using conditional permits to operate as restaurants. They are not a hybrid, they are not part bar or part bar. They operate as restaurants if they are operating properly and they follow all rules for restaurants. For other establishment that continue to operate as bars they need to follow the way we outlined bars operate today. What are you doing for your Thanksgiving celebration. You have a son who is coming home from college because LSU is going virtual for Thanksgiving Yeah I have a son who actually lives here in Baton Rogue and he will likely be coming home to spend some time with us. I will tell you we will stay in baton Rogue at the mansion and have a Thanksgiving meal that consists of the immediate household. We will gives thanks because even during this pandemic which has been so tough on people, even after the 3 hurricanes that hit this year, we have so much to be thankful for. God has truly blessed us. Thanksgiving is a day to give thanks and that is important to me and my family and we are going to do it, but last year I remember my 84 year old mother came, my 6 siblings all came with their spouses and children and grandchildren. We had 80 or 90 people. You will not be seeing that this year and you will not see it at Christmas either. I hope and pray that if you are with me on Thanksgiving Day of 2021 you will see that. I believe that you will, but between now and then we all have to do our part. Did you tell Legislative leaders about these new restrictions before you came out here today? What was their response? Yes, I did. You need to know that I routinely send data and information to the Speaker and to the President. We have complete transparency on the data we are relying on because we update it every day aside for Saturday. We also have sent Legislative leadership, and I believe every member of the Legislature, every White House Coronavirus Task Force report whenever we get them. This morning in a addition to those things we presented all gating criteria slides to the Speaker and the President. We talked about where we were especially in light of our hospital capacity and our need to go back to a modified Phase 2 in order to flatten the curve again. They asked some questions, expressed concerns to makes sure whether the Fire Marshall or ATC will work with proprietors and bar owners to maximum extend possible so they can know hat is expected of them and be given an opportunity, if they are operation in good faith -- of which the overwhelming majority of businesses are -- to come into compliance. That has been our approach throughout the pandemic. We have always bent over backwards to make sure individuals know what the rules give them every opportunity to come into compliance and only after persistent shortcomings/refusal to do any real enforcement actions like citations take place. I assured him our approach would not change. Does the influx of new vaccines change our prognosis at all We have a draft plan in Louisiana that we continue to update and revise daily. The reason it is a draft plan is that we still don't know the day that we will get the first vaccines nor the number of doses that will be there. I have every expectation that around mid-December we should receive some doses of the Pfizer vaccines first. We don't know how many it could be as few as 30,000 or might be 60,000 we do not know for sure. We think the first doses of the Moderna vaccines would come weeks later, perhaps with a smaller number available initially. We continue to work with our federal partners. We were on the phone with Azar yesterday and talked about the logistical aspects of Project Warpspeed. Once the vaccine gets the EUA from the FDA we will have the vaccine in route to our location(s) of choice in 24 hours. The first shipment will be prioritized to healthcare workers, then high-risk groups (nursing homes, assisted living centers, congregated shelters), then the list expands from there out. Ultimately we want to get to a place where we put a call out to the general population they can go to their health unit (hospital, doctor's office, or pharmacy) and get the vaccine. This is not a one and one vaccine, it requires a second dose, depending on the manufacturer that could be between 21-28 days later. More vaccines may come only over time and some of these things may change. I do not want talk of the vaccine, it is critically important and no one is more excited than I am, but I do not want the talk of the vaccine to cause people to not pay attention to what is imperative right now. That is why you hear Dr. Birx, Dr. Fauci, Azar, talking about the term of bridging to the vaccine and needing to double-down on measures until the vaccine is widely available. The vaccine will not be here in the numbers we need soon enough to reverse the trajectory and numbers we went over today. I do want to mention I have every confidence that when the FDA issues that EUA that that vaccine will be safe and effective. I hope my fellow Louisiana will embrace the vaccine. A vaccine saves 0 lives but vaccination can save a lot of lives. The vaccination requires the vaccines and an individual to receive that vaccine in two injections. So please understand the FDA has not cut out any steps required to evaluate the safety and efficacy of these vaccines. In fact, the trial sizes were 5x-6x more than one would normally see in a trial. They took steps consecutively instead of sequentially to make this vaccine thereby shortening its time for production. They started the mass production while trials were still happening. So if that authorization comes they have the vaccine to distribute and more to be distributed and you don't have to start that manufacturing process up from the beginning. So I really want people to embrace this and understand they will be safe and effective once the call goes out to start vaccination. Does the state have enough cold storage for the vaccines or does the state have to put in some money for that? We've identified the cold storage capacity that we need pursuant to our plan to administer the Pfizer vaccine. Its a combination of cold storage capacity and dry ice. We will be in good shape there. This is why you have to have really good hard work going on hard in advance. That way working with hospitals and universities you are able to identify all the cold storage you have, where is available for these vaccines and then you plug that into your plan. That will not be a limiting factor in terms of receiving the vaccine. Logistically it makes it more complicated because you have to receive it at those sites and distribute it from there. They are still evaluating how long the vaccines remain stable once they thaw out. We will be all over that so we will make sure if that vial falls out it will be administered while it is stable and making sure that people come and get the second dose as well.
Thank you for continuing to cover this. We do not anticipate another press conference until next week, date unknown.
As I mentioned awhile ago, despite how difficult this year has been for all of us both individually and as a state, there is a lot for us to be thankful for. That is always the case. So Thanksgiving is about giving thanks for the blessing we enjoy and I would encourage people to find ways to have a celebration that is safe so we can be thankful for the blessings we have while being mindful of the dangers of this pandemic. There are dangers if we insists on celebrating the holidays as we have in past. I cannot strongly encourage people to be patient. I know you are tired of this but be patient and love your loved ones by making sure you do not expose them to unnecessary risk. We close to them through the phone, FaceTime, and other ways. Let's look forward to getting together without restrictions and mitigation measures. Unless between now and then we are too risky with our behaviors and we'll be lamenting the fact that we didn't do what we were asked to do. That some of our loved ones won't be with us when the time comes to celebrate in person. When that next birthday, Thanksgiving, or Christmas happens. I encourage everyone to do their part. You've done it before. We can do it again. I am not asking for you to do this forever. There is finite time I am asking for. I cannot tell you when, but I believe in several months we will be putting this in our rearview mirror, but it is not today. In fact, it is not in our rear-view mirror it is in our grill and it is a nasty nasty situation here in Louisiana like it is around the country. We do not have a moment to waste. Everyone has to do their part. If we do, and I'm sure we will, we will get through this. I have every confidence of the people in Louisiana. They have always inspired by their kindness, goodness, and generosity and I believe they will do it again. So let's work together. Let's save lives. God bless and thank you.
BLOOM and BEL salivate after PIGO "cloud casino" license approval (Friday, Dec 11)
Happy DAY_OF_THE_WEEK, Barkada --
The PSE closed up 52 points to 7154 ▲0.7%.
The out-of-office replies are starting to come in after every MB send, so it can only mean one thing: the Christmas slowdown has already begun! Emmanuel and Cecilia, I hope you both have outstanding vacations. Haha.
MiddleClass ▼1.94% POGO Gaming ▼1.38% Fast Food ▼1.12%
Main stories covered:
[UPDATE] PAGCOR introduces its own online casino called “Live Shots”... the virtual casino will be open to Philippine Inshore Gaming Operations (PIGOs) who are willing to pay 25% of gross gaming revenue to PAGCOR. According to PAGCOR, Solaire Resort and Casino, Okada Manila, City of Dreams, and another land-based casino in Subic have already been approved for PIGO licenses. The terms of the license dictate that access to Live Shots will only be in the Philippines, and that only PIGO “VIPs” will be able to play.
MB:PAGCOR’s revenues have dropped 97% because of COVID, so it is obviously desperate to find some way to passively get a cut of some other action. As I speculated when the news broke about DFNN’s [DFNN 5.50 ▼6.30%] “first ever” online casino license, the rest of The Gang would probably be quite interested to follow suit. Here we are. Bloomberry [BLOOM 8.40 ▼1.18%] (Solaire) and Belle Corp [BEL 1.66 ▼1.19%] are already lined up at the trough; could Dennis Uy and PH Resorts [PHR 3.00 ▲1.01%] be that far behind?
[NEWS] MRC Allied [MRC 0.48 0.00%] halted until full consequences of Kerberus acquisition are disclosed... the deal between MRC and 5G Security Inc (5GS) calls for MRC to acquire 75% of Kerberus from 5GS, but that’s about all we can know from the relatively short disclosure. The PSE halted the stock before the open, saying that investors need to have access to “information [that] may reasonably be expected to materially affect the market activity and the price of its securities”. There was no lift date/time provided, so investors should assume that the halt will remain indefinitely until MRC is able to provide more info.
MB:Remember how MRC changed its articles of incorporation to change its primary purpose from “property developer” to “holding company”? Yeah, well that’s the only justification that MRC has provided for the purchase; “[the purchase of Kerberus] brings the Company closer to its aspirational goal of transforming from property business to a holding company.” Holding companies aren’t special, they’re just a company that owns other companies. Where is the strategy, here, if the goal is simply to own other companies?
[NEWS] BHI Holdings [BH 901.00 0.00%] suspended from PSE for failure to maintain 10% public float... according to the PSE, the investment holding company’s public ownership level is just 9.86%, which is below the minimum 10% required. BHI has “not been very active in investing and is only receiving interest income”, is “still in the process of finalizing its business plans”, and BH has no principal products or services because “it has not decided as to what product or service it will introduce to the market”. It’s website is still “under construction.”
MB:Prior to the suspension, BH was listed as having a 10.02% public ownership level, which is basically the required minimum (it’s even still listed that way now on the PSE’s website). So, how did the public ownership level fall from 10.02% to 9.86%? When Ms. Jemie U. Tan, a director of BH, bought 850 shares of BH in late October and early November. Because Ms. Tan is a director of BH, as far as the PSE’s concerned, her shareholdings are considered “non-public” holdings. Shares held by directors, officers, and even principal/substantial stockholders are not counted towards the percentage of the company that is publicly-owned. Seems like a silly mistake to make for a company that, even though it basically does nothing and looks like a rough draft, still has a marketcap of over ₱450m.
MB is posted to /PHinvest every Monday and Wednesday, but my newsletter goes out daily. To stay in the loop for daily email delivery, please join the barkada by signing up for the newsletter, or follow me on Twitter.
[SWEDEN/EU] 1550+ decks, uncut sheets and other accessories, books and dvds. D&D, Blaine, Ellusionist, Gemini, KWP, Seasons, Stockholm17, Blue Crown, Virts, Theory 11, TWI, Vanda, Whispering Imps and many others!
THIS POST HAS BEEN FLAIRED AS UNAVAILABLE AND WILL BE LEFT HERE JUST AS A REFERENCE. ALL 15 DIFFERENT ORDERS YOU CAN SEE HERE WERE DELIVERED AND POSITIVE FEEDBACK GIVEN. ABOUT 15% OF THE ITEMS ON THE LIST HAVE BEEN SOLD. I WILL MAKE ANOTHER POST IN THE FUTURE WITH AN UPDATED LIST. CHEERS!
TL;DR:you can find the link for the decks and accessories list (and another link for a way less nicely formatted list of 100+ books about magic, sleight of hand and card tricks) at the end of this post. Feel free to rush there, get the decks names (or just books names and author in case you are also/only getting books) and respective items conditions (M, A, B or C - more on that later) and create a top-level comment with your list of wishes. Example:
Mint 2 Set (Blueberry, Cucumber, Frost, Foiled Frost) (M) Dynasty Jade Green (A) Smoke and Mirros V6 Rouge (M) Seasons Set (Verana, Inverno)(A) The Amazing Miracles of Shigeo Takagi - Richard Kaufman
After that,YOU MUST READ THE WHOLE POST.It is crucial you read the post and understand that, if you still want to go ahead with negotiations, you agree with the conditions I wrote. It is extremely important we are on the same page regarding this. I am here to try to sell cards, not to create an unnecessary mess because of miscommunication. It is absolutely fine if you don't agree with some condition, but all of this needs to be worked out before we proceed to payment stage. I hope no one minds too much me saying "hey, that information was available on the post" :) Note 1:DO NOT edit your top-level comment, if you want to add decks or subtract decks from your list answer to your own comment and we will go from there. I will have to prioritize non edited comments because that is the only reliable timestamp I have. Note 2: On the (now locked) post on playingcards there was only one instance of a deck many people wanted (the "Verum Videre Christmas Edition (Signed)"). I have been pming for the last few hours everybody who reserved decks there to come here again and make a top-level comment with what they have reserved, so I will only keep reservations done here and the waiting list for the "Verum Videre Christmas Edition (Signed)" as it stood there. Note 3: it goes without saying I reserve myself the right of not trading with or selling to anyone I don't want to, whatever the reason might be.
Hello there, everybody!
The day has finally come! After almost four months, the work on this list has come to an end. Quick shout-out to everybody who helped by checking prices, conditions of the decks, gathering information on the internet and with people in the industry, helping me coming up with clever solutions for Sheets automation and so on. Thank you all! Unfortunately for me, from now on this is basically a one man mission :) A lot of consideration went into deciding on how to do this, how to tackle a project this size. There are around 1550 decks and a few accessories all bundled up in, as it stands right now, 1350 different items (plus the books on the secondary list). So, who am I (regarding cards, that is)? I am a card collector based in the woods in Sweden (yeah, I live remote even for Swedish standards). Been collecting for two and a half years, worked in the casino industry as a dealer for quite some time (though I don't deal that frequently anymore I am more involved in logistics, inspecting and training) even with my "actual" profession being in a completely different field. I admin the only group of card collectors in Sweden on Facebook (trying to push fellow swedes to engage and participate a bit more - it was kind of a miracle we had a fairly successful Secret Santa last year haha) and been a contributor at Portfolio 52 basically since I started collecting (fixing tons of info and pictures there whenever I can and spot something). Also, because of circumstances, I ended up getting involved with some Kickstarter creators and still work with some of them on the background of their campaigns :)
I would like to believe all the relevant information is right there, easy to see, search and find. All the decks are listed in alphabetical order (company>deck name) and color coded differently by different company's name. There are individual entries for every single deck (i.e. 10 copies of lets say "Saturn Red October" will have 10 different entries) that is not bundled up (example: Ellusionist's Prohibition Case V1 is one "item" only even though it has six decks).
Shelf/Box | Item# | Deck/Set/Accessories | Company/Designer | Printer | Year | Price (USD) | Condition | Status
When you decided for something you want, specially if that item has copies of it (but also when it doesn't), it is essential that you also write down the condition (M, A, B or C - more on that later) of that item so I know which one exactly do you want. A bit of patience is required with it; it takes around five minutes for the published document to be update from the master list whenever I make a change (example: marking a deck as reserved or sold).
Available / Reserved / Sold!
Another thing that is very easy to see on the list is if a certain item is still available or if it has been reserved or sold already (check the "Status" column). How do you "reserve" an item? Just make a top-level comment bellow with the items names and condition (M, A, B, or C - more on that later) and you are good to go! In case someone has already reserved a item you want to reserve and there are no copies of it, you can still make a top-level comment saying "I want item X condition Y" and I will let you know you are on that item's waiting list, you don't need to do anything else. I am gonna give myself a buffer of two days from the time of posting this to see how things went and then start working on individual requests, pictures, etc. That doesn't mean I won't do that before two days, it is just so people don't expect it. During this time, whenever I am available, I will be answering things that are not on this post (this post will NOT be updated for transparency sake, I will make an addendum in the comments about anything that needs to be corrected) or any other questions you guys and girls might have about the decks, conditions, pricing, shipping, etc. After this period I will check all the wish lists and put them in order (first come, first served of course), and grind the data from there.
Pricing / Condition
This is literally a "BUYER BEWARE" section of this post, but first things first.
Pricing: as you will see, there many, many different items with prices lower than what it is being offered everywhere else on the internet, but there are also decks priced pretty competitively towards the market, and a few decks have a higher compared to other places. Are you free to make me an offer because you saw an item somewhere else for cheaper but you still want to buy it from me? Absolutely, but it won't be often this might go through. Am I open to trades? Absolutely, but then again, do not have high hopes for it. I am in no way expecting most of it to be sold in the coming one, or even two years. There will be a bunch of decks left after this, and that is ok. Also, everything is priced in USD.
Condition: big disclaimer here so this is as clear as it can possibly be: EVERYTHING BEING SOLD HERE (DECKS, SETS, ACCESSORIES AND BOOKS) ARE SOLD "AS IS". As per Wikipedia: "As is" denotes that the seller is selling, and the buyer is buying an item in whatever condition it presently exists, and that the buyer is accepting the item "with all faults", whether or not immediately apparent." There is no way to put this out without sounding like an ass (maybe?) but this needs to be understood by both you and me. Having said that, I have done all I could, to the best of my abilities, to condition every single item fairly, but of course this is still subjetive and it only represents the way I would see them. Basically the "M" decks are decks with no faults whatsoever (or nothing that I could possibly bother or notice to begin with), the "A" decks are minor imperfections I would not bother with even if it is a deck I had no intentions of opening it, "B" are decks I would probably contact the store / seller to talk about it, even if it was not my intention to request a refund (example: decks I would be opening anyway I still contact them but just to let them know and give some feedback) and "C" decks I would definitely contact the store / seller to know what could be done about it regarding some sort of compensation. On the list you will see four different letters representing the conditions of the decks (and the respective discounts to each):
M: Mint (base price). Some decks have no cellophane (signed, etc) or came with no seal but are still considered "M", it just depends on the condition of the tuck/cards.
A: Almost mint (10% discount). Minuscule dents, minor issues with the cellophane or with the seal or other minor issues with the tuck. Basically no possibility of damage to the cards.
B: Either bigger dents or issues or more quantities of minor dents or other issues. Very low possibility of damage to the cards.
C: Bigger damage to tuck. Possibility of damage to the cards.
This was not an easy (or fun) run at all. I considered everything I could regarding the condition of all the 1550 decks: dented corners, dented sides, pressed bottom, pressed top, pressed seal, opened, no cellophane, cellophane broken, cellophane opened, scratched, smudged edge, seal partially broken inside the cellophane, no seal, issues with the bottom or top flap, etc etc etc. As of now, these are the quantities of items with each condition (to a total of 1350 different items):
Obviously nobody wants to buy anything in the complete darkness, but neither could I take individual pictures of 1550+ decks and match each and everyone with the respective conditions (with the "free" time I have this would take years hahaha). Having said that, I will upon request (which might take some time but I am 100%, of course, willing to do so) take pictures of specific decks (matching condition/item#/etc). I made a small Imgur album with a few pictures of some of the decks and my username on it (please don't mind the mess of this new VERY OLD house with tons of renovation to be done we just moved in). Again, feel free to ask for additional info or pictures.
It doesn't make it easier that one I live in Sweden and two I live in the middle of b$%f#&* nowhere in Sweden :) Basically the only shipping option I have here is Postnord, and I will absolutely not charge anything "a bit extra on top of shipping just to be sure but then people end up paying a bit more every time". If you want to have an idea of how much shipping would cost to you, go ahead and check Postnord's own website. Yet again, a lot of consideration went into this, and it is unfortunate but I have to say that I can not and won't be responsible for any lost packages or packages damaged during transportation, in any stage of it. The responsibility I am taking here is to agree on a price for items + shipping, pack everything in a way that the parcel could probably take a severe beating and the itens would still arrive on the same way they were shipped (I am talking hard boxes and unethical - I don't remember which redditor said this but I promised myself I would take it for a future use so here I am - amounts of bubble plastic, paper, tapes, boxes inside boxes like a good old matryoshka, etc). I have sent close to a hundred parcels on the last two and a half years (to Sweden, Europe, US, Taiwan, etc) and not ONCE a single deck arrived in a different condition they were shipped in. Depending on location and kind of parcel, Postnord offers some "sort of insurance" I can claim if a package gets lost or damage. We might talk about it if you are interested but I will only be able to refund any amount whatsoever after, and only if I am compensated by Postnord first.
Making this as short as I possibly can: buyer is responsible for all and any fees from Transferwise or Paypal (or any other payment method we agree upon - Swish in Sweden but I think it will be hard to find someone here that is not part of "Svenska Kortlekssamlare" already). Transferwise you say? Yes, I use a lot of Transferwise. Why? Cheapest fees charged by a service that accepts Swedish Crowns and deposits it directly on my bank account. Works in most countries, worth checking them out. Does Transferwise has a buyer protection program like Paypal does? No, Transferwise, because I only use a personal account and not a traders account, has no buyer protection at all, whatsoever. It works like Paypal's Family and Friends, sort of. I am not sure I feel comfortable using that, do you understand me? Absolutely, if you don't feel comfortable using a service like Transferwise (even though it is cheaper for you and easier for me), you are free for us to TRY to work something else out (like Paypal), but you have to remember my responsibility here is to send the decks we agreed upon, for the price of items + shipping we agreed upon, and packed very, very well; yet again, I can not and won't be responsible for any lost packages or packages damaged during transportation, in any stage of it. If you rather use Paypal Family and Friends (I think inside Europe we don't pay fees to use that option but please someone correct me if I am wrong), you are also free to do so but ONLY if you understand what it entails and are comfortable with that. Remember: NO REFUNDS OR COMPENSATION FOR ITEMS DAMAGED OR LOST DURING TRANSPORTATION, IN ANY STAGE OF IT.
Again, I think there is a lot of important and specific information here and because of that I won't edit this post for transparency sake. Any correction or new information will be posted in the comments. I will have to let pass all my English mistakes I am sure I made so please, bear with me :)
Portfolio 52 Profile: From now on I will be removing from this profile decks that have been SOLD (but not reserved) already. Remember this profile has only entries for different decks, but a lot (if not most of them) have more than one copy of each. Check the "Decks and Accessories" links above to see exactly what I still have in stock!
I've hated where I live (Las Vegas, NV) for years but my plans to move keep getting thwarted.
I'm the son of a union construction worker who has taken me from my birthplace of Chicago at the age of 10 and moved me and my family across the country to New Mexico, Nevada, and Indiana. I arrived in Las Vegas for my seventh grade of school, and my life has never been the same since. Before anyone says that the "grass is not greener on the other side", I want to acknowledge the fact that I have not had only bad times. It's just the frequency of bad events and people who have gone out of their way to do harm to me or my progress is sincerely over the top. If you have ever been to Vegas outside of the strip, you'll probably think it's beautiful and new compared to some other parts of the country, and that part may be true. It is a newly developing city that is starting to mirror the likes of other rising metropolitan areas. Yet, I cannot accurately express my level of disgust for the quality of people that exist here, from school, to jobs, to churches, I have experienced nothing but the same variety of transient loser who has come out here to Vegas from somewhere else seeking some element of the fast life. I have tried getting out, most recently have been here since 2014, and in the last six years, every two years; I have developed a new plan to get out of this place. And all three have failed, just a month ago I had a glimmer of hope to get to Colorado and continue my career there. I went through three interviews just to be turned down at the last minute after I already set my plans in motion. Not to mention with covid-19 having changed everybody's worlds, it has not allowed me anymore respite from the atrocities that I witness here in Vegas on a regular basis. The last few months, there have been more stabbings, shootings, and robberies by the strip and outside of the strip. I recently just moved out of an apartment complex far off-strip where a man had thrown his infant child off of the second floor balcony and set his apartment on fire, killing his dog. The infant didn't make it. I woke up at 4am to the ungodly, horrific wailing of the mother who was trying to resuscitate her child on the cold sidewalk. For almost two months I had to look upon the apartment unit kiddy corner from mine and be reminded of what happened just a couple hundred feet away. When things were good here, I had two large groups of friends who have since either moved away, or betrayed my trust in some way to where I have not had any friends to regularly visit but two. Even during the so-called "good times", I had put my best foot forward working in construction, sales, logistics, you name it And jobwise it is just as depraved as any other aspect of living in this city. Absolutely everybody has gotten their job through nepotism, and they all actively seek whoever they can screw out of a job for any dumb reason. I know this is not exclusive to Las vegas, but at this point I am utterly convinced that Las Vegas is the America of america, in that they sell the wildest dreams of luck and chance to those who see this bright City from afar off and in reality opens its wide Jaws to swallow in these transient visitors, such as myself. And it will not let go until it feels it has gotten everything it wants out of you. I can't help but to feel that I have lost so much since being here, and the only thing that gives me peace is the fact that I have maintained my faith in my respective God and I have tried my best not to fall in to the same pitfalls that people around here fall into. There is no good industry besides the hospitality and tourism industry, and everybody knows how that has been going since this virus pandemic. Even before the pandemic, casinos and tourism related industries were the only thing going for this place, it has nothing else solid or respectable to speak of. This year, since the raiders stadium especially, more people have been coming here from California and Texas and elsewhere trying to live cheaply, in every sense of the word. Our roads are completely unsafe, our government does not care unless California's does, and most of the outrageous newsworthy events that happened in the city are clearly muffled and not allowed to surface so that the city can continue collecting more people and sucking them dry. I have lived in four states in my life, I'm only 25, and yet I can see that this is the worst place I have ever lived, and if I can do anything to get myself out of here with my girlfriend that I love, I would do it. Sometimes, I feel like I am trapped in purgatory I'm around a bunch of people who not only don't care about themselves, but seem to hate others in any given setting or scenario whether professional or casual. I and my family have become afraid to leave the house, we only shop for groceries in the very early morning because we don't trust that anybody in this city would have the willpower or intelligence or wherewithal to avoid crowds as these covid-19 guidelines have been suggesting. Excuse this monumentally long post, but I have been stuck here for a total of six years most recently, and I'm beginning to feel like I don't exist because of this cycle of repetition I have found myself in in this city because no matter what I do, no matter what job I get, no matter how hard I work, no matter who I spend my time around with, it all turns to dust. My best advice to anyone ever, do not move here. Visit, and leave but do not live, not if you value the deeper things of life, for there is nothing but shallow Waters here that have been made to look very deep. Please, fellow Redditors, don't ever find yourself in a place like this, and if you relate to what I'm saying, I hope we are all going to make it out of this together. Tl;Dr: Las Vegas is a cesspool and I have been spinning my wheels trying to escape its clutches, do not move here and do not fall for their lies about how great this city is. They won't mention the level of violence and crime, the shoddy school systems, and the overall culture that exists in this city that values everything fake and tinsel over what's real and substantial.
DFNN soars 41%; will be PH's first online casino operator (Wednesday, Dec 9)
Happy Wednesday, Barkada --
The PSE closed up 69 points to 7204 ▲1%.
Greetings to all of the new subscribers that joined yesterday and this morning! I hope you enjoy what Merkado Barkada has to offer. If you do, please forward out to friends and family who might also enjoy it... and if not, please contact me at [email protected] to let me know why! I'm always interested in constructive feedback on how to make MB a better place for investors and traders alike.
[NEWS] DFNN [DFNN 6.35 ▲41.43%] granted PH’s first online casino license, stock soars 41%... the license allows the PAGCOR-approved company to develop and operate online casino games. DFNN said that the online casino would “only available to VIP players who must meet strict eligibility and registration procedures,” and would help in “regenerating revenues for the government”.
MB:PAGCOR has repeatedly tried to pitch “gaming” generally as the government’s cure to the cash crunch problem caused by its COVID-depressed tax income. I doubt it needed more than three slides in its pitch deck to government to get approval for the new license type. The government aches for income to replace what’s been lost. Investors and traders liked the news, in part because the complete surprise of the announcement allowed there to be a steep gap-up in the price (that’s always fun), but also because the license acts as something of a temporary monopoly for DFNN in terms of online gaming. There’s no word yet whether PAGCOR intends to license other gaming outfits to operate similar online casinos, but I’d bet that Dennis Uy and Enrique Razon are more than a little interested to join in on the fun, considering how poorly their profit puppies have performed through the pandemic. Especially if the license type will expand beyond the initial restriction to domestic bets only.
[NEWS] PH Resorts [PHR 3.00 ▼0.99%] halted for an hour after issuance of shares to Udenna Corp disclosed... the Dennis Uy-owned integrated casino/resort developer disclosed that it sold 1,686,309,523 common shares from its unissued capital stock to Dennis Uy’s Udenna Corp for P2.8bn (P1.68/share). The PSE halted the stock for one hour under the “additional listing” rule. That lede was buried in a press release that was supposedly about PHR “topping off” the two towers at its Emerald Bay facility.
MB:The follow-on offering that PHR conducted a month ago sold 450m shares at the same price, but this transaction is significantly larger. When the FOO dropped, Dennis Uy said: “At the offer price, investors will be given a good opportunity to get in early at attractive valuation levels.” He was really talking about himself, and about the private placement sale to Udenna that was to come. This transaction dilutes everyone materially, including the FOO buyers that diluted the previous shareholders.
[NEWS] Mergermarket reporting Indonesian coffee chain looking for JV partner in PH... Kopi Kenangan is Indonesia’s fastest growing coffee chain, and it’s fresh off of a Sequoia Capital India-led Series B investment round that netted it a US$109m warchest for expansion. The coffee chain reportedly prefers a Philippine “family-led conglomerate”, both for the conglomerate’s deep pockets but also its experience in the domestic retail sector. Kopi Kenangan is looking to co-locate its stores in buildings with a strong BPO presence.
MB:Looking for a family-led conglomerate with deep pockets is like shooting fish in a barrel in the Philippines. Kopi Kenangan is going to be able to run a beauty pageant to maximize the value of its potential JV. This store concept is not exactly like a convenience store (more like Luckin Coffee, actually), but it does serve some of the low-cost goodies (coffee, milk tea, snacks) that convenience stores like Seven-11 [SEVN 110.70 ▲4.43%], Ministop [RRHI 68.70 ▲0.51%], and Family Mart [PNX 12.74 ▼0.31%] use to lure customers in for repeated visits. That’s not exactly Kopi’s DNA, though, as it’s building its name and brand off of “coffee on demand” that is ordered by an app and either picked up in a small-footprint shop, or delivered direct to consumer. It’s not clear what Kopi Kenangan’s end-goal strategy is, whether it wants to be a stand-alone brand under the Kopi Kenangan flag here in the PH with its own locations, or whether it’s willing to be a branded component of a conglomerate’s overall offering, like “Ministop, with coffee by Kopi Kenangan”; either way, this is an indication that our convenience and coffee store market is heating up.
[NEWS] Metro Pacific Investments [MPI 4.55 0.00%] buys 20% of Philippine Tank Storage International (PTSI)... the purchase was part of a larger deal that saw Keppel Infrastructure Trust (KIT) and MPI together acquire 100% of PTSI’s stock for US$333.8m. According to Mergermarket, PTSI owns the Philippine Coastal Storage & Pipeline Corporation (PCSPC), which is “the largest petroleum products import storage facility in the Philippines”. KIT and MPI purchased PTSI from the Philippine Investment Alliance for Infrastructure (PINAI). PTSI’s storage capacity includes three “tank farms” and one marine terminal area, all within the Subic Bay Freeport Zone.
MB:There are no comments from the MPI side of the deal yet, but KIT is on record saying that this is a “strategic” acquisition to strengthen its distributable cash flow (the money that the company uses to declare dividends). KIT says the investment will help it “capture the expected growth in demand for petroleum products in [the Philippines].” I assume MPI’s reasons for entering the deal are substantially similar.
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Why the Legion is Doomed to be Destroyed in a Total War with the NCR.
Even if the Legion were to win the Second Battle of Hoover Dam and conquer the Mojave Wasteland, they'd merely be buying themselves a little extra time and simply stall their inevitable demise. Note that the following analysis assumes that the Legion won the Second Battle of Hoover Dam and that the Courier died in Goodsprings. To start off this analysis, let's begin with a run-down of the respective weapons, equipment and gear of the respective ranks of the NCR and the Legion going into the Second Battle of Hoover Dam. Beginning with the NCR garrison at Hoover Dam. The NCR Trooper comprises the core of the Republic's colossal armies and is the prime component of the NCR Army. A superb combination of volunteers and conscripts whose degrees of training, motivation, combat experience and access to equipment vary across the ranks, they're some of the most disciplined, most professional soldiers in all of the Wastes. They're outfitted with modern military-grade ballistic vests that offer excellent protection against small arms fire, shrapnel and melee weapons alongside steel helmets. The NCR Army battalion that's stationed at Hoover Dam in particular is fully comprised of battle-hardened, fully-trained volunteer veteran NCR Troopers that are armed with 5.56 × .45mm NATO Marksman Carbines, 5mm Assault Rifles, 12-gauge Riot Shotguns and .308 Sniper Rifles to supplement their standard-issued 5.56 × .45mm NATO Service Rifles. The NCR Patrol Ranger is one of the finest, most elite warriors in both the NCR military and the Wastelands, overall. Having survived a brutal training regimen that's so ludicrously difficult that 8-out-of-10 aspiring recruits wash-out, these purely volunteer harbingers of death have little to no equals in terms of skill, fighting prowess and strength. They're outfitted with a suit of hand-made First-Generation Combat sporting a knife sheath, a hydration pouch and spiked spurs for unarmed combat that is impervious to any and all small arms fire, shrapnel and melee attacks. They're armed with 5.56 × .45mm NATO Marksman Carbines, .308 Sniper Rifles and .44 Magnum Trail Carbines. The NCR Heavy Trooper is not only the elite heavy shock infantry of the NCR Army, but is also the proverbial sledgehammer through which the Republic may crush its enemies and obliterate all that may threaten its values. Having earned their distinctive armor through immense sacrifice in blood, sweat and most of their young lives, they're the absolute best-trained, best-equipped, most battle-hardened, most professional, most skilled, most fanatically-devoted warriors in the whole of the NCR Armed Forces (rivaled only by the legendary NCR Veteran Rangers). Warriors that are more than willing to fight to their absolute last breath in defense of the Republic and all that it represents. They're outfitted with NCR Salvaged Power Armor, suits of T-45d Power Armor that were captured from the Brotherhood of Steel during the Brotherhood War that have had their joint servomotors removed and their back-mounted power cylinders replaced with custom-built energy modules and built-in air-conditioning units so that Power Armor Training wouldn't be needed to wear them. And while they're no longer legitimate suits of Power Armor in that they're no longer powered, they're still some of the absolute best and most protective suits of armor within the Republic's entire mammoth arsenal. Completely invulnerable to all but the most powerful conventional firearms, highly-advanced energy weapons, specialized ammunition and high-powered explosives, they can truly absorb Hellish amounts of punishment. They're armed with 5.56 × .45mm NATO Light Machine Guns, 5mm Miniguns, Heavy Incinerators, Flamers and Missile Launchers (albeit rarely). The NCR Veteran Ranger is a living, breathing legend walking amongst the ruins and ashes of the Old World, drawing inspiration and hope from soldiers and citizens of the Republic as well as fear and terror from enemies and all those who dare to oppose the NCR. Fabled for their unmatched fighting prowess, envied for their flawlessly unequalled marksmanship technique, feared for their unrivaled warfighting skills, awe-inspiring for their unsurpassed pugilist talent and legendary for their innate mastery over hardcore survivalist skills, the NCR Veteran Rangers are the absolute finest, best-trained, most battle-hardened, most professional, most skilled, most-elite and all-around most bad-ass warriors in not only the entire history of the Republic military, but also the whole of the Western Wastes, as well. Centurions and Praetorian Guards of Caesar's Legion, Knights and Paladins of the Brotherhood of Steel and even the Republic's very own NCR Heavy Troopers have learned to shudder in terror and fear at the mere mention of the mythical phenoms of the Wastelands that are the NCR Veteran Rangers These fabled guardian angels of the Republic are outfitted with the equally legendary Black Armor, a hyper-advanced suit of Third-Generation Combat Armor consisting of a highly-flexible vest of incredibly-rigid high-impact armored plating with adjustable straps on both the sides and the shoulders and a built-in throat protector that's mounted on the vest. Combined with the state-of-the-art rounded-shell ballistic helmet sporting built-in lamps and infrared/visible light projectors as well as the complimentary highly-sophisticated armored mask with built-in low-light optics, an incorporated locking mechanism that joins the mask itself with the helmet shell, ear covers with built-in membranes that confer additional protection without inhibiting the wearer's hearing and built-in air filters, the mythical Black Armor is well-deserving of its stellar reputation. As you can see, the NCR's forces are extremely heavily-armed, well-equipped and armed to the teeth with the absolute latest in top-of-the-line, high-powered firearms and state-of-the-art, highly-sophisticated energy weapons as well as superbly well-protected with an abundance of different varieties of military-grade body armors with varying degrees of effectiveness and even Salvaged Power Armor. Now it's time for an evaluation of the Legion's weapons and technology. The Recruit Legionary is the primary foot soldier of Caesar's army and comprises the vast majority of the Legion's ranks. Trained and conditioned from before they could walk to become the perfect warriors, Recruit Legionaries are incredibly well-conditioned and in phenomenal physical shape, owing to a savagely intense training regimen that even the NCR Rangers would envy. Despite said conditioning, however, they're still the equivalent of literal cannon fodder with little-to-no actual skill in firearms usage and maintenance. They're outfitted with a suit of makeshift featherweight armor that consists of sports equipment with bits and pieces of scrap metal atop a cloth tunic that's all lashed together with leather straps. An armor that's so weak that it couldn't even protect its wearer against the likes of a straight razor. They're armed primarily with a "Machete" (what's really a lawnmower blade that's lashed to a stick) and "Throwing Spears" (what's really even bigger sticks with pieces of sharpened scrap metal fastened and jabbed into the tips), though they can rarely get their hands on firearms (albeit damn near broken ones) such as .357 Magnum Revolvers, .357 Magnum Cowboy Repeaters, 9mm Pistols, 20-gauge Single Shotguns, 20-gauge Caravan Shotguns, 5.56 × .45mm NATO Varmint Rifles and 10mm Pistols. The Prime Legionary is the centerpiece of the Legion's fighting force and the core component of any Legion formation. Having survived 5 years in Caesar's forces, a remarkable accomplishment in and of itself, Prime Legionaries are no longer mere cannon fodder but are now the main frontline fighting force of the Legion. With the accompanying improvement in weapons and equipment as well as adequate firearms skills to make the promotion that much sweeter. They're outfitted with the exact same armor as before, only with a slight improvement in protection. It still can't protect the wearer from shit, however. They're armed with the standard-issued "Machetes" and "Throwing Spears" though they also have much better access to more advanced weapons than before. Melee weapons, such as Machete Gladius', Power Fists and Chainsaws, and firearms (of decent quality), such as 10mm SMGs, 12-gauge Sawn-Off Shotguns .44 Magnum Revolvers and .308 Hunting Rifles are all available to them in significant quantities. The Veteran Legionary is the oldest, most experienced, most elite warrior within the lesser ranks of the Legion and is also the precise scalpel to the blunt, destructive warhammer of the Recruit and Prime Legionaries. Having survived a full decade in Caesar's service, a monumental achievement in its own right, Veteran Legionaries are the elite rapid reaction force of the Legion that's tasked with neutralizing particularly tough adversaries that their lesser counterparts can't defeat and typically remain in reserve until otherwise needed for tipping the scales of a pivotal battle or campaign in the Legion's favor. As they're the oldest Legionaries (a lot of whom have been with Caesar since day 1), they're also the most experienced, most capable Legionaries who are in their absolute prime in regards to martial prowess and physical resilience. They're second only to Centurions in terms of skill and experience, which is reflected in their improved access to superior weapons and equipment. They can also use and maintain firearms with frightening levels of efficiency. They're outfitted with the same armor as before, though with even better protection. Still couldn't protect you from anything meaningful, though. They're armed with the usual standard kit in addition to melee weapons such as Fire Axes and Power Fists as well as firearms (of mint condition and with virtually unlimited access to) such as .44 Magnum Revolvers, .308 Hunting Rifles, 5.56 × .45mm NATO Marksman Carbines and 12.7mm SMGs. The Decanus of the Legion is the lesser officer beneath the Centurion and is responsible for tactical small-unit operations and squad-level leadership. While not too different from ordinary Legionaries in terms of skill, equipment and even appearance, they still have slightly better access to weapons hence they deserve a separate segment. Recruit Decanii can get access to 9mm SMGs and 10mm SMGs unlike Recruit Legionaries, Prime Decanii aren't any different from Prime Legionaries and Veteran Decanii can get access to 12.7mm Pistols unlike Veteran Legionaries (not a real improvement, I know). Everything else is exactly the same. The Centurion is the absolute apex of the Legion's strength and the top field commanders of Caesar's armies, second in authority only to Legate Lanius and Caesar himself amongst a tiny select few of other superiors. Having survived 15-20 years of a long, arduous life of fighting in Caesar's name (a completely unimaginable phenomenon, indeed) before finally earning the treasured armor of the Centurion (which they can decorate with the trophies of their fallen enemies at their leisure), Centurions are the absolute most elite, most skilled, most battle-hardened and ultimately the most dangerous warriors in the entirety of the Legion. To even BEGIN to qualify for Centurion status, one must have fought in and survived numerous Legion campaigns as well as slain countless opponents in battle alongside the time requirement. All to ensure that only the finest of Caesar's warriors ever reach that level of authority in his Legion. As the oldest, most experienced warriors in Caesar's army, the Centurions comprise the old guard of Caesar's army, most of them having served their lord since the very beginning. Their status all but ensures that they're reserved for only the absolute deadliest, most lethal of assignments that even Veteran Legionaries can't handle. They're ultimately only deployed if absolutely necessary. In order to ensure that his Centurions can both accomplish their missions without even the slightest chance of failure and protect themselves without difficulty, Caesar has granted them unlimited access to the absolute finest weapons in his Legion's arsenal and has seen to it that they have acquired the absolute sharpest firearms skills that money can buy as a corresponding reward for their reaching Centurion status. They're outfitted with Centurion armor which, while legendary amongst the Legion, really isn't that special. It's actually just Veteran Legionary armor with some cool decorations on it at the end of day. Pieces of T-45d Power Armor on the right arm, the sleeve from a suit of NCR Ranger Patrol Armor and the pauldrons from an Armored Vault Suit on the left arm, the boots and shin guards from a suit of First-Generation Combat Armor on the lower legs, the crotch/thigh guards from a suit of NCR Ranger Patrol Armor on the upper legs, gloves from a suit of Leather Armor on the hands and a Super Mutant Brute chestplate on the torso, to be exact. Realistically speaking, Centurion armor would be just about useless against virtually any weapon in the NCR's arsenal. Even a single 5.56 × .45mm NATO round fired from a basic Service Rifle would most certainly do the job, flawlessly. They're armed with basic melee weapons such as Machete Gladius' and Chainsaws as well as high-tech melee weapons such as Thermic Lances (which are actually just repurposed metalworking tools) and Super Sledges in addition to powerful firearms such as .308 Hunting Rifles, 12-gauge Hunting Shotguns, 5.56 x .45mm NATO Marksman Carbines and even .50 BMG Anti-Materiel Rifles (albeit rarely). Now we must now examine what will inevitably be a huge problem for the Legion even if they were to win the Second Battle of Hoover Dam. The Legion, even though it does in fact have access to some top-of-the-line weapons, only has them in an extremely limited capacity and strictly reserves them for only the highest-ranking, most elite Legion forces and field commanders. The overwhelming bulk of the Legion's troops have little-to-no real firearms and what pitifully little that they can get their hands on are in extremely piss-poor condition. Not that it would matter, considering the fact that they don't have the proper training that's necessary to actually use them, much less maintain them. The vast majority of Caesar's troops rely almost entirely on primitive makeshift melee weapons and their own martial prowess to fight their battles, which inevitably means that the Legion has to avoid direct engagement with NCR forces, instead relying on subterfuge and guerilla warfare to combat the Republic. And it gets even worse for the Legion when one considers that the higher that its troops advance up the totem pole, the fewer Legionaries that it finds at the higher levels. A direct consequence of the Legion's overprioritization of quality and individual skill in combat is that it inevitably results in an extremely small cadre of elite warriors and field commanders surrounded by a sea of lesser soldiers and officers. Combined with the fact that the Legion is only 34 years-old by the events of F:NV (meaning that even if one were to ignore things like inevitable attrition all throughout the Legion's war-filled history of expansion and conquest, they still wouldn't have that many Veteran Legionaries/Decanii and Centurions) as well as the fact that attrition over the years must be taken into account (the First Battle of Hoover Dam and the Legion's invasion of Colorado alone absolutely devastated their elite ranks), it's only obvious that the Legion's elite forces are relatively puny. Furthermore, we know for a fact that there's enough Veteran Legionaries/Decanii for them to form a few of their own exclusive Centuria (a Century is 80-men-strong, I might add), with the Red Okie Centuria being a prime example of this. This definitely suggests that the Legion has at least a couple hundred Veteran Legionaries/Decanii at its disposal. As for Centurions, it's a little known fact that they're so incredibly rare in the Legion that they're actually explicitly ordered to not enter combat until absolutely necessary (i.e self-defense or if they're ordered into battle by a superior). This, along with the fact that they're never really seen in any meaningful numbers in-game until the Second Battle of Hoover Dam, strongly suggests that there might only be at most several dozen Centurions in the whole of the Legion (there definitely wouldn't be over 100 of them). Either way, however, the Legion's elite forces are so pathetically tiny that they couldn't possibly justify the Legion having any meaningful amount of high-end weaponry. The NCR, on other hand, doesn't have these problems as 1. the NCR prioritizes protection and firepower above all else for their forces and 2. even their most basic troops have exclusive access to essentially unlimited supplies of all manner of firearms and explosives as well as highly superb protection in the form of military-grade body armor. Meaning that the NCR not only has a hopelessly insurmountable edge in firepower, technology and protection over the Legion, but that soldiers of the NCR also have a far higher life expectancy than their Legion counterparts, as well. All but ensuring that the NCR has a vastly higher volume of surviving battle-hardened combat veterans relative to the Legion that enables for the Republic to easily distribute extremely invaluable, ultimately irreplaceable combat experience and lessons learned in battle across the entirety of their military to a far greater extent than the Legion. Scores of battle-hardened NCR Troopers that distinguish themselves on the battlefield go on to enlist with the NCR Rangers upon receiving an invitation to do so (fun fact: the vast majority of NCR Ranger recruits and even NCR Rangers themselves are/were NCR Troopers who earned their new status while serving in the NCR Army), earn the coveted Salvaged Power Armor and become NCR Heavy Troopers or earn promotions to positions of authority in the NCR Army (prime examples being Colonel Cassandra Moore and Colonel James Hsu). All of the above information will have colossal long-term consequences for the Legion, at the end of the day. With that out of the way, let's move on to the main argument itself. The most positive estimates of the Legion's total numbers and military strength would be at best 5,000-8,000 troops. Then we must take into account the fact that the Legion is going to suffer massive losses (easily numbering into the thousands) taking Hoover Dam from the NCR as the NCR garrison here is extremely well-defended, well-supplied and heavily-fortified by both an entire battalion of elite, battle-hardened NCR Troopers and God only knows how many NCR Patrol Rangers, NCR Heavy Troopers and NCR Veteran Rangers. Combined with the fact that General Oliver's Compound is extremely well-defended with force fields, a turret system, NCR Veteran Rangers, NCR Heavy Troopers, elite NCR Troopers and an absolute labyrinth that's filled to the brim with all manner of booby traps ranging from rigged shotguns, bear traps and mines of all types to grenade bouquets and overhanging objects (and given that you see a pile of fresh Legionary and Centurion corpses at your feet whenever you enter the Compound during the "Veni, Vidi, Vici" quest it's more than safe to assume that Legion casualties will be extremely massive just securing this area alone), this only serves to bolster my claim that thousands of the Legion's troops will perish at Hoover Dam even if they were to take it. With only a mere fraction of their original number (that 5,000-8,000 will have been massively depleted after the Second Battle of Hoover Dam), now the Legion has to set out and secure the rest of the Mojave Wasteland, which will prove to be completely impossible over time. The Legion will find next to no tribes to assimilate as they exterminate the Powder Gangers, Fiends, Vipers, Jackals and the Kings in all of their endings. And while the Legion still has the Great Khans and the Boomers, they won't help much. The Great Khans are down to little more than a pitiful rag-tag band of holdouts after both their ass-whipping at the hands of Mr. House and their decimation at Bitter Springs by the NCR. A fact that only gets worse when we subtract the women and female children (breeding stock), the elderly, the sick and the disabled (killed off immediately) as well as mention the fact that the Frumentarius Karl does say in his journal that the Legion would have to decimate most of the tribe, anyways. Meaning that the Legion will at most get a couple paltry handful of warriors from them. As for the Boomers (assuming that the "Volare!" quest isn't completed) will prove to be more than a huge cost than a real benefit to the Legion. The Boomers' artillery alone would kill hundreds, if not thousands, of Legionaries with the Boomers themselves, armed to the teeth with Missile Launchers, Fat Mans, Grenade Machine Guns, Grenade Launchers, Grenade Rifles, 5.56 x 45mm. Marksman Carbines and 5mm Assault Carbines in addition to Mr. Gutsy combat robots and Sentry Bots, killing hundreds and even thousands more before the Legion finally conquer them. Also consider that the Boomers, who worship their artillery and weapons with a near religious reverence, will by no means let their weapons fall into the hands of savages. Thus we could easily see them sabotaging their artillery (how hard would it be to load an artillery shell and lob a frag grenade down the barrel, after all?; and given that the Boomers only have 3-4 artillery pieces it wouldn't take long to do) and munitions stockpiles (just a few bricks of C4 could easily destroy all of the Boomers' weapons and ammunition supplies) to keep them out of Legion hands, which only adds insult to injury. Even worse for the Legion is that when we subtract those Boomers that died in battle (most likely all of the adult males), the women and female children, the elderly, sick and disabled the Legion will have only a handful of male children to their name (remember that the Boomers are a really puny tribe that depend entirely on their firepower to survive) which means that they will have achieved nothing despite their massive losses incurred from conquering Nellis Air Force Base. Then we also consider the fact that the Legion doesn't enslave civilized communities or Independent Towns unless under extraordinary circumstances (as evidenced by Siri over at the Fort who hailed from an Independent Town in New Mexico and was a medical student there prior to its destruction by the Legion). Of course, it wouldn't matter as even if they did, the entire New Vegas area is completely evacuated by the NCR in the event of a Legion victory at Hoover Dam as evidenced by Arcade Gannon's Legion ending where he's convinced to remain in Freeside (all of Freeside, North Vegas, Westside, East Vegas and the Strip, which is really just a resort for NCR tourists rather than an actual community, are evacuated with those few that don't make it out, Arcade included, being killed by the Legion). And when we consider that Nelson was butchered, Camp Searchlight irradiated and Nipton destroyed by the Legion with Goodsprings being left alone and Primm just falling under Legion authority (no point in enslaving the town anyways considering how it's just one big retirement home alongside Goodsprings which is also evacuated by all save a few old, stubborn folks) then it's blatantly clear that the Legion will have very few civilized people left to enslave. With an even smaller fraction of survivors thanks to their conquest of Nellis AFB (in addition to hundreds more casualties against the Mojave Chapter of the Brotherhood of Steel, the Kings and what's left of House's Securitron police force and the Chairmen) the Legion will soon realize its folly and discover that both holding the Mojave Wasteland and continuing their advance West is literally impossible. The Legion's logistical situation and acquisition of supplies will soon prove to be an insurmountable nightmare within mere weeks of their occupation of the Mojave. The loss of Nipton, Camp Searchlight and Nelson will serve to severely hamstring the Legion's logistics with the eventual deaths of New Vegas, Primm and Goodsprings only complicating the Legion's supply lines even further. As 99% of the Strip's revenue comes from NCR tourists and soldiers on leave and given how the Legion will most likely tear down the casinos and ban whores, booze, chems and gambling under Caesar's law, the Strip will eventually shrivel up and die due to loss of revenue. North Vegas, East Vegas, Westside, Freeside, Primm and Goodsprings, which are entirely dependent on Republic trade and commerce for survival, will eventually suffer the same fate as NCR trade and business abandon the region out of both fear and hatred for the Legion. Especially after the Legion's successful assassination of President Kimball which will see him martyred and ensure that the NCR will cut off all ties to the fallen Mojave Wasteland. With all of the Mojave's communities and towns dying off, the Legion's supply lines will crumble and face imminent collapse within only a few months time (Hoover Dam isn't a viable supply route as while it does allow the Legion to cross the Colorado River in force it's just too far to provide adequate, long-term support) which will only serve to doom the Legion's occupation of the Mojave Wasteland. We must also take into account that the Legion will need every last man, Denarius and resource at its disposal if it so much as hopes to hold the region and continue the advance West. Which will force Caesar to relinquish the Legion's entire empire East of the Colorado in order to do so. In Legate Lanius’ own words, the Legion's expansion campaigns in the East have been faltering badly as Caesar's obsession with Hoover Dam, New Vegas and the West has seen the Legion's full strength syphoned off towards Hoover Dam as part of Caesar's plan to overrun Hoover Dam, conquer New Vegas and eventually invade the West. Imagine the Hell that the Legion will have trying to secure the Mojave Wasteland, which will prove to be so bad that the Legion heartlands will have to be left defenseless, lawless and chaotic just to even begin to make such an ambitious feat even remotely feasible. Some would probably argue that Caesar would surely never abandon the East just for the tiniest, southernmost tip of Nevada and just one little city but I'd advise you to reconsider. Caesar explicitly states that while the Legion does have their own cities back East, NONE OF THEM are ANYTHING like New Vegas. Why is that such a big deal, one might ask? It's simple, really. While the Mojave Wasteland was relatively untouched by the nuclear holocaust that was the Great War, thanks to the quick and decisive actions of Robert Edwin House, New Vegas is at best a total dump and at worst an absolute shithole. Filled to the brim with disease, essentially overrun with Raiders, bandits and common criminals of all stripes, absolutely crushed beneath the iron heel of a colossal drug-addiction crisis, bursting at the seams with abject misery and poverty and rampant with starvation, New Vegas is without a doubt little more than a massive dumpster fire. Things are so bad in that cursed place that you actually have children chasing rats in the streets just to survive, locals constantly complaining about hunger pains and withdrawals and scum ranging from the Fiends to random little hooligan punks constantly ransacking the place. Westside, the South Vegas ruins, East Vegas, North Vegas and Freeside are all Hellish nightmares that are almost completely hopeless causes, at the end of the day. Even if one takes into account the diamond in the rock, the New Vegas Strip, you still wouldn't find many reasons to be impressed. What you have is a tiny wealthy resort community that still looks like a dump (though it's still a major improvement from the rest of New Vegas), has highly dilapidated infrastructure (the Tops Casino still has a giant hole on the side of the building) and is surrounded by a wall that's held together with spit, grit and a whole lotta' duct tape. And while the Strip is safe, orderly and prosperous by the standards of the Mojave Wasteland (a very shit standard, I might add), it's ultimately a very terrible place by the standards of the rest of the post-apocalyptic world (i.e. NCR territory and lands under Legion control). If Legion cities can't even match the standards of that shithole, what does that say about Caesar's willingness to hold them? Especially in light of what he'd be gaining in return? Furthermore, Caesar often tends to view himself as a mere barbaric king of the Gauls, with his Legion being nothing but one big nomadic tribe of savages without a true home or purpose in his eyes, which is extremely depressing. Caesar sees New Vegas as a true city, a true capital, a true home for both himself and his Legion, a true Rome that he can rule over and could preside over a true empire in. And the West as that very true empire that he so desperately relishes. Do you honestly believe that Caesar wouldn't trade his current empire (which he clearly holds in very low esteem and almost regrets ever conquering it) for his new Rome and a stepping stone towards eventually conquering his new Roman Empire (the stepping stone being the Mojave Wasteland)? He'd trade the whole of the East for New Vegas and the Mojave Wasteland in a heartbeat and in doing so will seal the Legion's fate and imminent doom. With the Legion having completely relinquished the East (and therefore cutting themselves off from their resource base, source of revenue/income and escape route, in the process) their supply lines and logistical network in chaos and having absolutely no source of replenishment and reinforcements for their ranks, the Legion will slowly but surely disintegrate, trapped in a permanent holding pattern in the Mojave that'll bleed them dry and drain them of all their resources. The NCR, meanwhile, will have simply dug in at the Mojave Outpost and fortified their defenses there. They'd have most certainly brought in the 3 VB-02 Vertibirds (which are armed with Gatling Lasers, Missile Launcher racks and Mini Nuke Launchers and outfitted with heavy armor) that were conducting combat air patrols of the NCR military base just a few miles away from the Mojave Outpost. Far from stopping there, however, Colonel Royez (who's outfitted with the Scorched Sierra Power Armor which is a fully-operational suit of heavily-modified T-45d Power Armor upgraded with onboard medical systems capable of healing any injury and an improved back-mounted power pack from a suit of T-51b Power Armor that will be capable of resisting nearly all of the Legion's weapons and armed with a Plasma Caster chock full of overcharged Microfusion Cells so incredibly strong that it can kill a lvl. 50 Courier in Power Armor with just 2-3 hits!) and his men (NCR Heavy Troopers armed to the teeth with Gatling Lasers, Plasma Casters and Tesla Cannons as well as NCR Troopers armed with Tri-Beam Laser Rifles, Multiplas Rifles, Laser Rifles and Plasma Rifles) will also redeployed there from the same military camp, as well. Republic artillery pieces can also be deployed there to help bolster the outpost's defenses, as well. A massive network of bunkers, pillboxes and trenches all along the hill below the outpost as well as machine gun nests, sniper nests, minefields and razorwire can also be established to further enhance the impregnable defensive perimeter of the new frontline. Once all of this is done, the NCR will then proceed to flood the outpost with tens of thousands of NCR Troopers, NCR Heavy Troopers, NCR Veteran Rangers And when coupled with the fact that the Mojave Outpost is atop a high hill, is flanked by mountain ranges on both sides (which will completely prevent the Legion from attacking its flanks and rear), is right on the border with fully-controlled Republic territory (which will make it impossibly easy to keep well-supplied and will also ensure that Republic reinforcements are plentiful and easily available) and the fact that one could see everything up to Primm and Nipton from the Mojave Outpost (that particular area is also wide-open, completely exposed and lacks any real cover which means that any Legion force of any meaningful size would be spotted from miles away day or night which in turn will prevent Legion surprise attacks), the Mojave Outpost will truly become a 100% impregnable fortress. To make things even worse for the Legion, there's absolutely no bypassing the Mojave Outpost either as the only areas that can allow such a short cut around the Long 15 are completely and literally impassable. The Big Empty is often described as a wall to any living thing approaching it, the Divide is little more than a death trap and is completely avoided by the Legion for obvious reasons and Death Valley is so inhospitable that even the NCR, with its fleet of military cargo trucks and Vertibirds, flat out avoids that area out of habit. Any army stupid enough to try and cross through these areas will not return alive under any circumstances. Which in turn ensures that only through the Long 15 can the Legion hope to invade the West and given that the Mojave Outpost is purely impenetrable and that the Mojave Wasteland is completely entrapped with mountains and the Colorado River, the Legion will be completely trapped in the Mojave Wasteland and will never be freed from their holding pattern there. The NCR simply bides its time and let's the Legion wear itself out and tear itself apart trying to hold the Mojave Wasteland, occasionally fending off Legion assaults on the Mojave Outpost whilst inflicting heavy losses on the Legion, launching several limited-scale offensives here and there so as to deplete the Legion's ranks even further and deploying NCR Veteran Rangers into the Mojave Wasteland so as to ambush Legion supply caravans and patrols to worsen the Legion's logistical nightmare. After almost a year, the Legion will finally be vulnerable, it's forces stretched absolutely thin down to their absolute breaking point, their supply lines and logistics completely exhausted and expended alongside their supplies as a whole, the Legion's ranks reduced to little more than a tiny skeleton crew, the Legion completely scattered across the entire Mojave Wasteland unable to guard it or defend it any longer and the Colorado River at its back, with absolutely no way of escaping their inevitable demise. At this moment, the NCR finally attacks with a full-scale assault across the entirety of the Mojave, completely and utterly destroying the Legion in its entirety and killing/capturing Caesar himself as Republic forces swarm across New Vegas and wipe out his Legion all around him within mere hours, days if the Legion is lucky. And so the NCR-Legion War finally draws to a close, with the back of the Legion broken forever and ceasing to exist. Either way the Legion is fucked with a Legion defeat at the Second Battle of Hoover Dam being a mercy killing at best for the Legion. (Sources are down below in the comments section).
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